Trump–Netanyahu Rift Fuels Israel’s Next PM Race as Eizenkot Edges Netanyahu on Polymarket
A report published July 6 focused on rising strains between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, tying the tension to disagreements over Iran talks and Israel’s campaign in southern Lebanon. On Polymarket’s “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?” contract, Gadi Eizenkot led with a 39.15% implied chance, narrowly ahead of Netanyahu at 36.5%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot as the front-runner at 39.15%, with Benjamin Netanyahu close behind at 36.5%.
- The market’s tight top two reflects uncertainty around Netanyahu as US-Israel frictions dominate the political backdrop in the latest coverage.
- The contract is set to resolve by 2026-12-31, and Eizenkot’s odds are up 2.05 percentage points over the last 24 hours.
A July 6 report said many in Israel expect US President Donald Trump to re-evaluate Washington’s ties with Israel, an alliance that has supported Israel’s military since its early years. It said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pursuing a high-risk political strategy as he faces ongoing corruption charges and the prospect of a general election later this year that could remove him from office. The report linked the strains to Washington’s efforts to secure an agreement with Iran that involves Lebanon, while Israel has been bombing Lebanon since 2023 and parts of the Israeli public want the war to continue. It described Iran as making an end to Israel’s war in southern Lebanon a key demand in negotiations with Washington, increasing the risk of major disagreements between the US and Israel. It also cited an alleged leak of a phone call, not denied by the White House, in which Trump reportedly berated Netanyahu over refusing to halt attacks on Lebanon and suggested his legal troubles would be worse without presidential intervention.
Polymarket Data: $25.9M Volume With Eizenkot at 39.15% vs Netanyahu at 36.5% (Up 2.05 Points in 24 Hours)
On Polymarket, trading volume in the next-Israel-prime-minister market stood at $25,910,181, with the pricing concentrated in a two-way race. Gadi Eizenkot traded at 39.15% Yes (60.85% No), while Benjamin Netanyahu was at 36.5% Yes (63.5% No), leaving a narrow spread that signals divided positioning rather than a clear consensus. A second tier was priced well below the leaders, with Naftali Bennett at 12.5% Yes (87.5% No) and Avigdor Lieberman at 3.5% Yes (96.5% No). The latest tape showed only a marginal uptick in the leader’s odds to 39.15% from 39.1%, while the broader 24-hour move in the series measured a 2.05 percentage point rise in the leading outcome.
Watch for any further shifts in the top two pricing—Eizenkot versus Netanyahu—alongside changes in total volume and whether the gap widens beyond the current low-single-digit range ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution date.
Beyond Israel Politics: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching
Elsewhere on Polymarket, traders are clustering around flashpoints that could ricochet across energy and risk assets, led by 98.95% on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?” with $7,540,049 in volume. In crypto-linked macro positioning, bettors are pricing near-certainty into short-dated levels, with 99.95% on “Bitcoin above ___ on July 8?” (50,000) and 99.5% on “Bitcoin above ___ on July 10?” (52,000), underscoring how quickly platform attention shifts from headline-driven politics to market-moving chokepoints and price thresholds.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.0 |
| 7d | +2.0 |
Implied odds (last 48h)025Odds %Gadi EizenkotBenjamin NetanyahuNaftali BennettAvigdor Lieberman
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$25,910,181
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Naftali Bennett | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 3.5% | 96.5% |
+14 more strikes not shown
