Netanyahu Says Trump Ties Are “Fine” as Polymarket Widens Gadi Eizenkot’s Lead in Next Israel Prime Minister Race
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his ties with US President Donald Trump are “fine” and confirmed he plans to visit the United States again, comments that landed as Polymarket traders priced the next Israel prime minister race. On Polymarket’s “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?” contract, Gadi Eizenkot led at 40.25%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot as the leading next Israel prime minister pick at 40.25%.
- Netanyahu’s public pushback on reported Trump frictions coincided with a modest uptick in Eizenkot’s lead versus other named contenders.
- The market resolves by 2026-12-31, with Eizenkot up 1.15 percentage points to 40.25% on the latest reading.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his relationship with US President Donald Trump is “fine,” rejecting reports of tensions over a US-Iran memorandum of understanding that calls for a regional ceasefire, including in Lebanon. In a Fox News interview, Netanyahu praised the United States and said he and Trump see eye to eye on “just about everything,” while acknowledging allies can still have differences. His comments came as some members of Israel’s cabinet criticized the ceasefire framework and as Israel has refused to withdraw from Lebanon, saying it retains the right to strike to respond to “threats.” Netanyahu said he would soon visit the United States again, though he did not provide a date. He also said he would lobby against transferring F-35 jets to Turkiye, arguing it would upset the regional balance that he said is backed by Israeli air superiority.
Polymarket Odds and Liquidity: Eizenkot 40.25% vs Netanyahu 35.5% as Volume Hits $25.87M
On Polymarket, the multi-outcome market shows Gadi Eizenkot at 40.25% Yes versus 59.75% No, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 35.5% Yes and 64.5% No. Naftali Bennett trailed at 12.5% Yes and 87.5% No, while longer shots included Avigdor Lieberman at 3.45% Yes and 96.55% No and Itamar Ben Gvir at 1.25% Yes and 98.75% No. Total volume stood at $25,865,747, indicating heavy liquidity concentrated in the top two outcomes. Eizenkot’s implied odds were up 1.15 percentage points from 39.1% to 40.25% on the latest update.
Traders will track any confirmed timing for Netanyahu’s next US trip and any fresh statements tied to the regional ceasefire framework, while watching whether Polymarket pricing stays concentrated between Eizenkot and Netanyahu as volume builds into the 2026-12-31 resolution window.
Beyond Israel’s Election Market: Other High-Volume Geopolitical Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching
Beyond Israel’s election pricing, Polymarket activity is also clustering around big-picture political and tech bets that can move with a single headline. In “Presidential Election Winner 2028,” JD Vance leads at 20.05% with $647,045,082 in volume, while the AI race is topping trader watchlists in “Which company has best AI model end of July?” where Anthropic is priced at 84.5% on $4,792,147 in volume.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.0 |
| 7d | +2.0 |
Implied odds (last 48h)025Odds %Gadi EizenkotBenjamin NetanyahuNaftali BennettAvigdor Lieberman
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$25,865,747
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Naftali Bennett | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 3.5% | 96.5% |
+14 more strikes not shown
