{"id":685938,"date":"2026-11-10T13:46:29","date_gmt":"2026-11-10T13:46:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.crypto-news-flash.com\/?p=1304622"},"modified":"2026-11-10T13:46:29","modified_gmt":"2026-11-10T13:46:29","slug":"bitcoin-slips-below-74k-as-hot-cpi-locks-in-a-fed-hike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/11\/10\/bitcoin-slips-below-74k-as-hot-cpi-locks-in-a-fed-hike\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Slips Below $74K as Hot CPI Locks In a Fed Hike"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li><strong>October inflation came in above forecasts on both the headline and core measures.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Futures markets now price a December Fed rate hike as close to certain.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Long-term Bitcoin holders are selling coins below their purchase price.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Bitcoin trades under both of its main moving averages on the daily chart.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bitcoin fell below $74,000 on Tuesday after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">consumer prices rose 0.4% in October<\/a>, a tenth of a point above the consensus forecast, with core inflation also beating expectations at 0.3% against a projected 0.2%. The data pushed the probability of a December rate hike to 98.8% on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CME FedWatch tool<\/a>, sent Treasury yields and the dollar higher, and hit a crypto market where long-term holders had already started selling at a loss.<\/p>\n<h2>A 0.4% print the Fed cannot look past<\/h2>\n<p>Core CPI strips out food and energy, the two most volatile categories, so the Federal Reserve treats it as the cleaner signal of whether price pressure is spreading through the economy. A 0.3% monthly core reading works out to roughly 3.7% on an annualized basis, well above the central bank&#8217;s 2% target, and that gap between the core figure and the target is what moved rates traders on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>The release also came without its usual headline number. The BLS said it will not publish year-over-year figures for October because the agency never collected prices in October 2025, when the federal government shutdown halted its survey work. With no base month to compare against, the monthly change became the only official measure of inflation for the period, and markets weighed it accordingly.<\/p>\n<p>Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller added to the pressure, saying he wants a hike in December and is open to a 50 basis point move, which means raising the policy rate by half a percentage point in one step instead of the usual quarter point. With a hike almost fully priced, the market&#8217;s attention has moved to its size.<\/p>\n<h2>How a hot CPI number travels into crypto<\/h2>\n<p>Higher expected rates feed into Bitcoin through a few connected channels. Rising Treasury yields increase what investors give up by holding an asset that pays no interest, and a stronger dollar tightens financial conditions for buyers outside the US who fund positions in dollars. Leveraged traders in crypto futures feel it fastest, because higher rates push up the cost of keeping positions open and falling prices can force liquidations. The same rate repricing hit equities, which tend to move with Bitcoin when expectations for Fed policy shift sharply.<\/p>\n<h2>Long-term holders sell below cost for eight straight days<\/h2>\n<p>The macro shock arrived while on-chain data already showed stress among Bitcoin&#8217;s most patient investors. <a href=\"https:\/\/axeladlerjr.com\/old-coins-move-at-a-loss-as-lth-sopr-falls-to-0-94\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">According to analyst Axel Adler Jr.<\/a>, LTH-SOPR has stayed below 1 for eight consecutive days. The metric compares the price at which long-term holders, defined as wallets holding coins for more than 155 days, sell their coins with the price they originally paid. A reading below 1 means that, on average, those coins changed hands at a loss.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1304625\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1304625\" style=\"width: 1200px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1304625 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.crypto-news-flash.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/bitcoin-lth-sopr-axel-adler-cryptoquant-30.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin LTH-SOPR chart showing long-term holders moving back into loss territory\" width=\"1200\" height=\"715\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1304625\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bitcoin LTH-SOPR. Source: Axel Adler Jr.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Adler noted that similar readings appeared several times over the past year, but the indicator just posted one of its sharpest monthly drops of 2026, and it was the speed of that move that stood out to him. A large share of long-term supply was bought during the 2025 run above $100,000, so even a price in the mid-$70,000 range leaves those holders underwater.<\/p>\n<p>The size of that cohort is shrinking as well. Adler&#8217;s LTH supply data shows 16.3 million BTC held by long-term holders, down 171,700 BTC over the past month. He cautioned that coins also enter this group simply by aging past the 155-day threshold, so the figure can move without any purchase or sale. A net decline means long-term holders spent more coins than the aging process added to the group over the month.<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%;margin: 20px 0\">\n<table style=\"width: 100%;border-collapse: collapse;font-family: Arial,sans-serif;font-size: 15px;text-align: left;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0\">\n<thead>\n<tr style=\"background: linear-gradient(90deg,#0b1f3a,#1c3d6e);color: #ffffff\">\n<th style=\"padding: 12px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0\">Asset<\/th>\n<th style=\"padding: 12px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0\">Price<\/th>\n<th style=\"padding: 12px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0\">7-day change<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"background: #f4f6fb\">\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0\">Bitcoin (BTC)<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0\">$73,824<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0;color: #c0392b;font-weight: bold\">-4.70%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"background: #ffffff\">\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0\">Ethereum (ETH)<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0\">$2,064<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0;color: #c0392b;font-weight: bold\">-9.95%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"background: #f4f6fb\">\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0\">XRP<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0\">$1.06<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0;color: #c0392b;font-weight: bold\">-16.91%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"background: #ffffff\">\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0\">Solana (SOL)<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0\">$84.06<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0;color: #c0392b;font-weight: bold\">-9.79%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"background: #f4f6fb\">\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0\">Hyperliquid (HYPE)<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0\">$73.29<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding: 11px 14px;border: 1px solid #c9d1e0;color: #c0392b;font-weight: bold\">-13.81%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"font-size: 13px;color: #666;margin-top: -10px\">Source: CoinMarketCap<\/p>\n<p>Altcoins absorbed heavier losses than Bitcoin over the week, with XRP down almost 17% and Hyperliquid\u2019s HYPE token off nearly 14% even as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.crypto-news-flash.com\/hyperliquid-strategies-chases-us-futures-broker-license\/\">Hyperliquid Strategies pursues a US futures broker license<\/a>, and the total crypto market value slipped to $2.48 trillion, while the <a href=\"https:\/\/coinmarketcap.com\/charts\/fear-and-greed-index\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index<\/a> fell to 27.<\/p>\n<p>The index peaked at 82 on August 27 and bottomed at 5 on February 6, so the current reading still sits well above this year&#8217;s panic low.<\/p>\n<h2>Bitcoin loses the 200-day average it reclaimed in September<\/h2>\n<p><!-- Insert TradingView chart here --><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_1304624\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1304624\" style=\"width: 1280px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1304624 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.crypto-news-flash.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/btcusdt-tradingview-10-11-2026.jpg\" alt=\"Bitcoin daily chart with price trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages\" width=\"1280\" height=\"740\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-1304624\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">BTC\/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView \/ Alexander Stefanov<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>On the daily Binance chart, Bitcoin trades near $73,950, down 1.87% on the session, after briefly touching $73,525. Price now sits below the 200-day exponential moving average at $76,475, a line many traders use to separate long-term uptrends from downtrends, and below the 50-day average at $79,110, which has started to turn lower.<\/p>\n<p>The two averages formed a golden cross in mid-September, when the shorter one moved above the longer one and the rally toward $87,000 followed. That gap has narrowed to about $2,600. If the 50-day keeps falling toward the 200-day, the setup would reverse into a death cross, a signal that tends to attract trend-following sellers. The MACD momentum indicator also remains below its signal line, with both values deep in negative territory, a reading that has stayed negative since late October without any sign of a turn.<\/p>\n<p>Recent candles left long lower wicks near $73,000, showing where buyers stepped in over the past few sessions. On the way up, the first test is the 200-day average around $76,500, followed by the 50-day near $79,100.<\/p>\n<h2>Waller&#8217;s 50 bps remark puts hike size on the table<\/h2>\n<p>A quarter-point hike in December is already in prices, so a move of that size would add little new pressure on its own. The real risk for crypto and equities is a half-point increase or a signal from the Fed that further hikes will follow in early 2027, and Waller&#8217;s comments make that outcome harder to dismiss. On the on-chain side, a return of LTH-SOPR above 1 would show that long-term holders have stopped selling at a loss, while a pause in the LTH supply decline would suggest the distribution from older wallets is easing.<\/p>\n<p>The next CPI report should restore the full picture. The BLS did collect price data in November 2025 after the shutdown ended, which means the November 2026 release will carry an annual inflation rate again, and it will be the first official year-over-year figure since September that traders and Fed officials can compare against the 2% target.<\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.crypto-news-flash.com\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>October inflation came in above forecasts on both the headline and core measures. Futures markets now price a December Fed rate hike as close to certain. Long-term Bitcoin holders are selling coins below their purchase price. Bitcoin trades under both of its main moving averages on the daily chart. Bitcoin fell below $74,000 on Tuesday [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":685939,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[1675],"class_list":{"0":"post-685938","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-other","8":"tag-bitcoin-insights"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/685938","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=685938"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/685938\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/685939"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=685938"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=685938"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=685938"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}