{"id":667010,"date":"2026-10-05T10:20:26","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T10:20:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/20261005-price-prediction-ton-dead-cat-bounce-or-the-real"},"modified":"2026-10-05T10:20:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T10:20:26","slug":"ton-price-prediction-dead-cat-bounce-or-the-real-turn-1-55-vs-1-75-in-the-next-10-days","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/10\/05\/ton-price-prediction-dead-cat-bounce-or-the-real-turn-1-55-vs-1-75-in-the-next-10-days\/","title":{"rendered":"TON Price Prediction: Dead-Cat Bounce or the Real Turn? $1.55 vs. $1.75 in the Next 10 Days"},"content":{"rendered":"
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James Ding<\/a> Oct 05, 2026 10:20 UTC<\/span> <\/p>\n

Toncoin is grinding at $1.60 with momentum flatlined and volume nearly nonexistent \u2014 but a persistently positive funding rate is screaming that futures traders haven’t given up. A flush to $1.55 is…<\/p>\n

\"TON <\/a> <\/figure>\n

TON Is Stuck in No Man’s Land \u2014 And the Clock Is Ticking<\/h2>\n

There’s a specific kind of market setup that veteran traders dread: a price coiling between two moving averages with zero volume, zero direction, and a MACD histogram that’s gone flat as a heartbeat monitor in a horror film. That’s precisely where Toncoin finds itself at the open on October 5th. At $1.60, TON is pinned above its 7-day simple moving average ($1.58) but firmly rejected below its 20-day ($1.64), its 26-day EMA ($1.66), and nowhere near touching the 50-day ($1.78) \u2014 a level that now functions as a gravitational ceiling, not a near-term target.<\/p>\n

The 24-hour range tells you everything: $1.58 to $1.64, a tight six-cent band with $7.7 million in Binance spot volume. That’s not a market building energy for a breakout \u2014 that’s a market exhausted from the prior leg down, catching its breath before the next directional commitment. For a Layer-1 asset that was previously a high-beta play on Telegram-native crypto adoption and TON-based DeFi, this kind of low-liquidity drift is a warning sign. Traders should be watching Blockchain.news<\/a> closely for any macro catalyst \u2014 particularly Bitcoin correlation plays \u2014 that could jolt TON out of this compression in either direction.<\/p>\n

The Chart Is Bearish, But One Number Doesn’t Fit the Story<\/h2>\n

Strip away the noise and the technical picture has a clear lean. With the RSI sitting at 44.5, buyers are hesitating \u2014 not panicking, but not committing. The MACD is negative and the histogram has zeroed out, meaning the bearish impulse that pushed TON down from the $1.78 zone has technically exhausted itself, but no bullish counter-momentum has filled the vacuum. The Bollinger Band %B at 0.33 puts price in the lower third of the range, with the lower band at $1.52 acting as the magnetic floor if support at $1.57 gives way.<\/p>\n

The moving average stack is unambiguously bearish: SMA 7 \u2192 SMA 20 \u2192 EMA 12 \u2192 EMA 26 \u2192 SMA 50 are all stacked above current price in ascending order, forming a layered resistance ceiling. Every bounce attempt runs into selling pressure before it can gain traction. The only technical silver lining? The 200-day SMA at $1.55 is sitting just below price and aligning closely with the strong support zone at $1.55 \u2014 a confluence that the market tends to respect on first test.<\/p>\n