{"id":664093,"date":"2026-09-29T10:21:28","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T10:21:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/20260929-price-prediction-ton-coiling-at-160-a-violent-move"},"modified":"2026-09-29T10:21:28","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T10:21:28","slug":"ton-price-prediction-coiling-at-1-60-a-violent-move-is-coming-within-days","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/09\/29\/ton-price-prediction-coiling-at-1-60-a-violent-move-is-coming-within-days\/","title":{"rendered":"TON Price Prediction: Coiling at $1.60 \u2014 A Violent Move Is Coming Within Days"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"figure mt-2\">\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/Profile\/Jessie-A-Ellis\">Jessie A Ellis<\/a> <span class=\"publication-date ml-2\"> Sep 29, 2026 10:21 UTC<\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"lead\">Toncoin is compressing in a dangerously tight range with MACD momentum flatlined at zero and derivatives traders stubbornly holding longs \u2014 the odds favor a squeeze attempt toward $1.67, but a fail&#8230;<\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news:443\/features\/C2350DF611C38FCE51BC99399DA15863B9C8C1E7DEDE8831AF6E2302C1B50074.jpg\" class=\"hero-image-link\"> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"rounded hero-image\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news:443\/features\/C2350DF611C38FCE51BC99399DA15863B9C8C1E7DEDE8831AF6E2302C1B50074.jpg\" alt=\"TON Price Prediction: Coiling at $1.60 \u2014 A Violent Move Is Coming Within Days\" loading=\"eager\" width=\"1200\" height=\"630\"> <\/a> <\/figure>\n<h2>Dead Zone: TON Is One Catalyst Away from Deciding Its Next 20%<\/h2>\n<p>At $1.60, Toncoin isn&#8217;t doing much of anything \u2014 and that&#8217;s precisely what makes it dangerous right now. A modest 0.95% gain in the last 24 hours, a trading range of just $0.06 wide, and spot volume on Binance barely clearing $7.7 million. That is thin, directionless price action from a Layer-1 asset that has been relentlessly sold off from the $1.78 SMA 50 zone. The broader crypto market continues to be shaped by Bitcoin&#8217;s gravitational pull and liquidity rotation dynamics across DeFi and Layer-1 ecosystems, and TON is currently a passenger in that car \u2014 not the driver.<\/p>\n<p>What matters here is the compression itself. When a liquid asset trades this quietly with momentum indicators pinning to neutral, it is not rest. It is a coil. And coils release. Traders tracking TON&#8217;s on-chain liquidity and order flow through outlets like <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\">Blockchain.news<\/a> will recognize this setup as one of the more binary short-term trades the token has offered in months.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h2>The Technical Picture: When MACD Hits Zero, Someone Is About to Be Wrong<\/h2>\n<p>Here is the honest read: TON&#8217;s technical structure is caught in a tug-of-war with no clean winner yet. Price is sitting below the SMA 20 ($1.64), below the SMA 50 ($1.78), and below both the EMA 12 ($1.61) and EMA 26 ($1.66). Every meaningful moving average above the current price is acting as resistance, which tells you the medium-term trend remains under pressure.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"card border-0 rounded-4 shadow-sm my-4 bg-body-tertiary news-inline-price-chart\" data-news-inline-chart=\"1\" data-binance-symbol=\"TONUSDT\" aria-labelledby=\"news-inline-pc-h-5797dca5\">\n<div class=\"card-body\">\n<p class=\"small text-secondary mb-2\">Hourly candlesticks (about 96 bars), same endpoint as our cryptocurrency price pages. Numbers below refresh from 1-minute klines.<\/p>\n<p class=\"small mb-0 mt-2\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/price\/TON\/USD\">More TON news, TON price prediction and analysis<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>But here is where it gets interesting. The MACD histogram is exactly zero \u2014 the bearish impulse has fully exhausted itself without triggering a bullish crossover yet. Momentum has flatlined, not reversed. Meanwhile, the Stochastic is showing %K at 37 crossing above %D at 29 \u2014 a setup that historically precedes short-term relief bounces rather than accelerations lower. The Bollinger Band %B reading of 0.33 places TON closer to the lower band ($1.52) than the middle ($1.64), confirming the price has been under sustained selling pressure, yet the lower band remains a full $0.08 away \u2014 not imminent doom.<\/p>\n<p>The SMA 200 at $1.55 is the structural anchor. As long as TON holds above that level, bulls can still make a credible case. The ATR of $0.09 tells you that within a single daily candle, this asset can cover the entire distance from current price to either the $1.52 floor or the $1.67 ceiling. Position sizing accordingly.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h2>Derivatives Contradiction: Longs Are Paying to Stay Wrong<\/h2>\n<p>This is the most intellectually interesting part of the setup. Despite a technically weak price structure sitting below nearly every relevant moving average, the Binance Futures funding rate is sitting at a notably positive 0.3538%. That means longs are paying shorts to stay in the trade. Derivatives participants are, collectively, betting on recovery \u2014 even as spot price languishes.<\/p>\n<p>This creates a classic tension. Either the derivatives crowd is right and a catalyst or Bitcoin momentum flush drives a short-term squeeze to clear the $1.63\u2013$1.67 resistance cluster, or spot selling overwhelms that conviction and the funding rate flips negative violently as longs get washed out. There is no comfortable middle ground here. <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\">Blockchain.news<\/a> has consistently covered how TON&#8217;s relationship with Telegram-driven adoption narratives and broader Layer-1 rotation cycles affects these kinds of sentiment divergences, and this current positive funding setup with weak spot volume is a textbook pre-squeeze or pre-capitulation configuration.<\/p>\n<p>Smart money does not ignore this divergence. It trades it.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h2>The 7\u201330 Day Probabilistic Map: $1.67 or $1.52 \u2014 Pick Your Side<\/h2>\n<p>Here is where I plant the flag. Two scenarios, clear probabilities, no hedging.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bull Scenario (55% probability, 7-day timeframe):<\/strong> TON holds $1.57 immediate support on any intraday dip, stochastic completes its crossover into the 40\u201350 zone, and the MACD histogram edges positive for the first time in weeks. That unlocks a move into the $1.63\u2013$1.67 resistance cluster. A clean daily close above $1.67 \u2014 the strong resistance \u2014 would be a structural shift, opening a medium-term path back toward the $1.75 Bollinger upper band and eventually a retest of the SMA 50 at $1.78. Invalidation: Any daily close below $1.55 (SMA 200) kills this thesis outright.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bear Scenario (45% probability, 7-day timeframe):<\/strong> Spot volume stays anemic, Bitcoin pulls back, and the derivatives longs begin unwinding. A sustained break below $1.57 puts $1.55 \u2014 the SMA 200 \u2014 immediately in play. If that level cracks on meaningful volume, the Bollinger lower band at $1.52 becomes the natural magnet. A close below $1.52 and TON enters genuinely troubled technical territory, potentially testing the $1.40\u2013$1.45 zone over a 30-day horizon. Invalidation: Any daily close above $1.67 renders the bear case moot for the near term.<\/p>\n<p>The next 72 hours of price action around the $1.57\u2013$1.63 range will tell you everything. If TON can&#8217;t find buyers in this band with stochastics already leaning bullish and funding rate stubbornly positive, the bear case escalates in probability rapidly. Volume is the tie-breaker \u2014 a surge in spot buying through $1.63 confirms the squeeze; continued low-volume drift breaks it. Keep watching developments on <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\">Blockchain.news<\/a> for any fundamental catalyst that could break this stalemate in either direction.<\/p>\n<p><span><i>Image source: Shutterstock<\/i><\/span> <!-- Divider --> <!-- Bookmark button --> <!-- Bookmark button END --> <!-- Author info END --> <!-- Divider --> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jessie A Ellis Sep 29, 2026 10:21 UTC Toncoin is compressing in a dangerously tight range with MACD momentum flatlined at zero and derivatives traders stubbornly holding longs \u2014 the odds favor a squeeze attempt toward $1.67, but a fail&#8230; Dead Zone: TON Is One Catalyst Away from Deciding Its Next 20% At $1.60, Toncoin [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":664094,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[25,15592,8868],"class_list":{"0":"post-664093","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-news","9":"tag-ton-price-analysis","10":"tag-ton-price-prediction"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664093","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=664093"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/664093\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/664094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=664093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=664093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=664093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}