{"id":646878,"date":"2026-08-22T08:52:17","date_gmt":"2026-08-22T08:52:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/20260822-price-prediction-ton-primed-for-a-long-squeeze-152"},"modified":"2026-08-22T08:52:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-22T08:52:17","slug":"ton-price-prediction-primed-for-a-long-squeeze-1-52-before-1-75","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/08\/22\/ton-price-prediction-primed-for-a-long-squeeze-1-52-before-1-75\/","title":{"rendered":"TON Price Prediction: Primed for a Long Squeeze \u2014 $1.52 Before $1.75"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"figure mt-2\">\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/Profile\/Timothy-Morano\">Timothy Morano<\/a> <span class=\"publication-date ml-2\"> Aug 22, 2026 08:52<\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"lead\">TON is parked at $1.60 with overleveraged futures longs sustaining an inflated 0.35% funding rate while spot volume collapses \u2014 the technicals favor a flush to $1.52\u2013$1.55 before any genuine recove&#8230;<\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news:443\/features\/C2350DF611C38FCE51BC99399DA15863B9C8C1E7DEDE8831AF6E2302C1B50074.jpg\" class=\"hero-image-link\"> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"rounded hero-image\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news:443\/features\/C2350DF611C38FCE51BC99399DA15863B9C8C1E7DEDE8831AF6E2302C1B50074.jpg\" alt=\"TON Price Prediction: Primed for a Long Squeeze \u2014 $1.52 Before $1.75\" loading=\"eager\" width=\"1200\" height=\"630\"> <\/a> <\/figure>\n<h2>Market Context: Why TON is Moving Now<\/h2>\n<p>That 0.95% green candle on the day? File it under noise. TON is grinding in a $1.58\u2013$1.64 band with the conviction of a trader hoping nobody notices the position. In the current crypto landscape, Layer-1 tokens without fresh catalysts are dead weight, and TON is no exception. The Telegram-backed blockchain had its moment \u2014 but the narrative heat that drove it is no longer the dominant market story. Without a new DeFi breakout, a meme supercycle pulling retail into the ecosystem, or a regulatory green light on the Telegram integration front, TON is just drifting in the current.<\/p>\n<p>The broader altcoin market remains tethered to Bitcoin&#8217;s mood, and in a sideways BTC regime, speculative capital doesn&#8217;t rotate toward languishing L1s with no fresh story. On-chain liquidity in the TON ecosystem hasn&#8217;t shown any meaningful pickup \u2014 there&#8217;s no TVL explosion, no institutional narrative being freshly priced. Traders tracking the regulatory storyline around Telegram should keep <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\">Blockchain.news<\/a> on their radar, because that angle \u2014 Telegram&#8217;s legal exposure and its direct knock-on effect on TON&#8217;s perceived legitimacy \u2014 is still live, unresolved, and could detonate in either direction.<\/p>\n<h2>Indicator Alignment<\/h2>\n<p>The chart is telling a clear story once you strip out the noise: TON is in a bearish trend structure, full stop. Price sits below its 20-day SMA, 50-day SMA, EMA 12, and EMA 26. The only averages it&#8217;s trading above are the short-term 7-day and the 200-day SMA at $1.55 \u2014 the latter being the last line of structural defense for bulls, not a sign of underlying health.<\/p>\n<p>Momentum has run out of ideas. The MACD histogram printing dead flat at zero while both the line and signal remain deeply negative isn&#8217;t a reversal \u2014 it&#8217;s deceleration on a downtrend with no buying pressure to capitalize on it. RSI hovering in the mid-40s confirms neither camp is committing capital. The one micro-bullish signal \u2014 Stochastic %K crossing above %D from the low 30s \u2014 sounds better than it is. These crossovers in the lower range, unconfirmed by RSI pushing above 50, are textbook fakeouts that burn impatient longs.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"card border-0 rounded-4 shadow-sm my-4 bg-body-tertiary news-inline-price-chart\" data-news-inline-chart=\"1\" data-binance-symbol=\"TONUSDT\" aria-labelledby=\"news-inline-pc-h-48f62007\">\n<div class=\"card-body\">\n<p class=\"small text-secondary mb-2\">Hourly candlesticks (about 96 bars), same endpoint as our cryptocurrency price pages. Numbers below refresh from 1-minute klines.<\/p>\n<p class=\"small mb-0 mt-2\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/price\/TON\/USD\">More TON news, TON price prediction and analysis<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>The Bollinger Band %B at 0.33 puts TON in the lower third of its range, with the $1.64 midline acting as capped overhead resistance that buyers haven&#8217;t seriously challenged. Spot volume at $7.7M on Binance for the session is anemic \u2014 the kind of volume that says nobody with real size is participating. That&#8217;s not accumulation. That&#8217;s professional money standing aside and watching.<\/p>\n<h2>Whales &amp; Analyst Targets<\/h2>\n<p>The most revealing signal in this setup isn&#8217;t on the price chart \u2014 it&#8217;s in the futures market. At 0.3538% per 8-hour settlement, leveraged longs are paying a steep premium to hold positions while spot goes absolutely nowhere. That divergence between futures-side optimism and spot-side reality is a flashing yellow light. Smart money reads that imbalance instantly: crowded long side, thin spot volume, deteriorating price structure. That&#8217;s a liquidation cascade waiting for a trigger, not a launchpad.<\/p>\n<p>The sequence is straightforward to map. TON fails to reclaim $1.63 immediate resistance and the $1.64 SMA 20 on a closing basis, longs bleeding funding costs every 8 hours begin hitting the exit, price breaks $1.57 immediate support, and the flush accelerates toward $1.55 \u2014 where the SMA 200 and strong support zone converge into the washout destination. Below $1.55, the lower Bollinger Band at $1.52 is the next meaningful stop, and that&#8217;s where the risk\/reward for a long position actually becomes attractive.<\/p>\n<p>For anyone tracking macro and partnership catalysts that could disrupt this setup, <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\">Blockchain.news<\/a> is worth watching closely \u2014 because TON&#8217;s range break, when it finally comes, will be driven by an external event, not price action alone.<\/p>\n<h2>Strategic Positioning<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Bear case (65% probability):<\/strong> Funding rate pressure collides with failed resistance. TON can&#8217;t close a daily candle above $1.64, the overloaded longs start getting unwound, and $1.55\u2013$1.52 gets tested within the next 48\u201372 hours. The SMA 200 at $1.55 has held before, but each retest weakens the defense. If $1.52 breaks cleanly, this becomes a structurally different conversation with air below. The tactical play is initiating longs at $1.52\u2013$1.55 on a wicking capitulation candle \u2014 that&#8217;s where the reward justifies the risk.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bull case (35% probability):<\/strong> Bitcoin sparks a meaningful altcoin rotation, TON closes decisively above $1.64 on expanding volume, RSI clears 50, and the MACD histogram flips positive. That sequence squeezes the shorts positioned around the funding rate dislocation and drives a run toward $1.67 strong resistance, then the upper Bollinger Band at $1.75. This path requires external fuel \u2014 a BTC breakout or a legitimate TON-specific catalyst.<\/p>\n<p>There is no edge at $1.60 right now. The setup doesn&#8217;t reward guesswork. Either wait for the confirmed daily close above $1.64 as a long entry trigger with hard risk defined below $1.57, or let the flush to $1.52\u2013$1.55 do the heavy lifting and buy the capitulation wick. Stepping in front of a potential long squeeze with paper-thin volume and a bearish MA structure is exactly how retail accounts serve as exit liquidity for professionals. Stay patient, keep the risk defined, and monitor emerging regulatory and macro signals via <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\">Blockchain.news<\/a> \u2014 when the real catalyst lands, the move out of this range won&#8217;t wait for anyone.<\/p>\n<p><span><i>Image source: Shutterstock<\/i><\/span> <!-- Divider --> <!-- Bookmark button --> <!-- Bookmark button END --> <!-- Author info END --> <!-- Divider --> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Timothy Morano Aug 22, 2026 08:52 TON is parked at $1.60 with overleveraged futures longs sustaining an inflated 0.35% funding rate while spot volume collapses \u2014 the technicals favor a flush to $1.52\u2013$1.55 before any genuine recove&#8230; Market Context: Why TON is Moving Now That 0.95% green candle on the day? File it under noise. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":646879,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[272,15592,8868],"class_list":{"0":"post-646878","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-analysis","9":"tag-ton-price-analysis","10":"tag-ton-price-prediction"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/646878","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=646878"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/646878\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/646879"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=646878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=646878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=646878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}