{"id":644484,"date":"2026-08-17T07:18:13","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T07:18:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/20260817-price-prediction-xrp-bears-still-own-this-chart-098"},"modified":"2026-08-17T07:18:13","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T07:18:13","slug":"xrp-price-prediction-bears-still-own-this-chart-0-98-retest-looms-before-any-real-reversal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/08\/17\/xrp-price-prediction-bears-still-own-this-chart-0-98-retest-looms-before-any-real-reversal\/","title":{"rendered":"XRP Price Prediction: Bears Still Own This Chart \u2014 $0.98 Retest Looms Before Any Real Reversal"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Alvin Lang<\/a> Aug 17, 2026 07:18<\/span> <\/p>\n

XRP is coiling at $1.01 with every meaningful moving average stacked overhead and MACD momentum dead flat \u2014 the high-probability near-term path is a flush toward $0.98\u2013$0.99 support before any cred…<\/p>\n

\"XRP <\/a> <\/figure>\n

Market Context: Why XRP Is Stuck at the Dollar Handle<\/h2>\n

XRP trading at $1.01 is not a story of consolidation \u2014 it’s a story of a token that has been systematically sold into every minor uptick since rolling off its 200-day SMA at $1.28. The $0.27 gap between current price and that long-term average tells you everything about the macro positioning: institutions that were accumulating on the regulatory-clarity narrative earlier this cycle have largely been distributed into, and what’s left at this level is retail bag-holding dressed up as “support.”<\/p>\n

The broader crypto market hasn’t exactly been throwing XRP a lifeline. Bitcoin correlation dynamics remain the dominant force, and until BTC establishes a convincing higher-low structure, alt-layer-1s like XRP are going to keep getting the worst of both worlds \u2014 dragged down on risk-off days, ignored on risk-on ones. The Standard Chartered projection of $8 by end-2026, issued back in April 2025, was contingent on sustained U.S. regulatory clarity and institutional flow. At $1.01 in August 2026, that call is aging poorly, and the market is pricing in a far more cautious outcome. Traders following this space closely on Blockchain.news<\/a> will recognize this price action as the prototypical “regulatory promise, delivery disappointment” fade that’s hit XRP in multiple prior cycles.<\/p>\n

The 24-hour trading range of just $0.02 with volume barely scraping $39 million on Binance spot is also a red flag \u2014 this is not a market with conviction in either direction, but low-volume compression near resistance almost always resolves to the downside.<\/p>\n

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Indicator Alignment: Technicals Are Not Your Friend Here<\/h2>\n

The technical picture is about as friendly as a margin call on a Monday morning. Every single moving average \u2014 the 7, 20, 50, and 200-day SMAs \u2014 is sitting above price, creating a cascade of overhead supply that will need to be absorbed before any rally has legs. The 20-day SMA alone at $1.04 is three cents above the current print, and the 50-day at $1.08 represents the zone where any meaningful short squeeze would likely stall.<\/p>\n

Momentum is flatlining in a way that typically precedes another leg down rather than a reversal. The MACD histogram at zero means the bearish impulse hasn’t accelerated, but it also hasn’t reversed \u2014 sellers are not panic-selling, they’re patient. Combine that with an RSI that’s drifting in the high-30s, and you have a market that is tired but not yet washed out.<\/p>\n

Here’s the one contrarian signal worth watching: the Stochastic at roughly 20 is hovering in oversold territory, and the Bollinger Band positioning at 0.24 \u2014 meaning price is three-quarters of the way toward the lower band at $0.98 \u2014 suggests the compression band is tightening for a move. The lower band at $0.98 is both a technical magnet and the line in the sand. If that goes, there’s no meaningful structure until you get into the mid-$0.80s. The negative funding rate of -0.012% is a small but genuine contrarian tell \u2014 the market is paying longs to hold, which occasionally precedes a short-covering squeeze. But one data point doesn’t make a trade thesis.<\/p>\n

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Whales & Analyst Targets: Smart Money Is Long but Patient<\/h2>\n

The derivatives positioning is sending mixed signals that deserve careful parsing. The top-trader long\/short ratio sitting at 3.64 \u2014 with whales 78.5% net long \u2014 is the most bullish data point in this entire setup. Smart money doesn’t load up 78% net long on a coin it expects to crater. However, open interest has shed 2.32% in 24 hours, which means some of those long positions are being quietly trimmed, not added to. That’s not capitulation, but it’s not aggressive accumulation either.<\/p>\n

Retail, at 75.8% net long, is dangerously crowded. When retail and whales are both heavily long but price continues to languish below all major moving averages, one of two things happens: either the whales are right and a catalyst forces a violent squeeze upward, or the retail longs get flushed to generate the liquidity needed for smart money to re-enter at better levels. Given the current lack of catalysts and the thin volume, the flush scenario carries higher near-term probability \u2014 call it 60\u201365%.<\/p>\n