{"id":633234,"date":"2026-07-22T14:21:59","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T14:21:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/polymarket-odds-put-eizenkot-at-51-for-israel-pm-ahead-of-likud-vote-0hnn7veu190o0"},"modified":"2026-07-22T14:21:59","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T14:21:59","slug":"polymarket-odds-put-eizenkot-at-51-for-israel-pm-ahead-of-likud-vote","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/07\/22\/polymarket-odds-put-eizenkot-at-51-for-israel-pm-ahead-of-likud-vote\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket odds put Eizenkot at 51% for Israel PM ahead of Likud vote"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/79A892D68406B7BEA76A3A02C1A92F194D28373ECFEBE7625DA51232BF6FECCE.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Polymarket Reprices Israel Next PM Odds After Likud\u2019s Scheduled Vote on Netanyahu Primaries<\/h2>\n<p>Polymarket traders are pricing Gadi Eizenkot as the front-runner to be Israel\u2019s next prime minister, with his contract leading at 51.05% on about $28.90M in volume. The move follows a Likud internal vote scheduled for Monday, and the market\u2019s pricing shows a widening gap between Eizenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Top outcome: Gadi Eizenkot at 51.05% implied odds (Netanyahu at 36.5%).<\/li>\n<li>Catalyst: a scheduled Likud vote on Netanyahu\u2019s primaries proposal coincides with Eizenkot\u2019s odds rising +11.95 pp versus the prior snapshot.<\/li>\n<li>Timing: the market resolves by 2026-12-31 (and remains active for trading).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A report says Likud members will vote on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s proposal to hold party primaries on Monday between 11:00 a.m. and 8:00 p.m., after the vote was postponed several times. Likud\u2019s acting CEO David Sharan said a list of polling stations and addresses will be published on the party\u2019s website.<\/p>\n<h2>Market Reaction: Eizenkot Jumps to 51.05% on ~$28.90M Volume as Netanyahu Trades 36.5% and Bennett 7.0%<\/h2>\n<p>This is a multi-outcome Polymarket contract: each candidate\u2019s price is that candidate\u2019s implied chance to be the next prime minister after the next election, not a standalone Yes\/No on a single strike. Right now the market is concentrated at the top, with Gadi Eizenkot at 51.05% (No 48.95%) versus Benjamin Netanyahu at 36.5% (No 63.5%), while Naftali Bennett trails at 7.0% (No 93.0%) and everyone else is priced as a long shot (for example, Avigdor Lieberman at 2.6% \/ No 97.4%). The latest snapshot shows a sharp repricing higher for the leader: 51.05% current odds versus 39.1% previously, a +11.95 percentage-point jump alongside total volume of about $28.90M, signaling a fast shift toward a clearer favorite rather than a tightly clustered field. Even with that jump, the historical summary flags moderate volatility and a reversal_detected signal, which fits a market that has been moving in both directions before settling into a \u201cstrengthening\u201d consensus. Because settlement is tied to who actually becomes prime minister by the resolution date (2026-12-31), traders are effectively buying a long-dated political outcome that can keep repricing as party processes, coalition math, and election timing evolve.<\/p>\n<p>If the spread between the top two outcomes keeps widening (Eizenkot vs Netanyahu) without a comparable jump in mid-tier candidates like Bennett, that would confirm the market is treating new political signals as a two-horse race rather than a fragmented field heading into the long resolution window.<\/p>\n<h2>What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Election Timing, Coalition Math, and Cross-Market Signals (US Politics, Fed Cuts<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond the headline contract, traders often triangulate sentiment by watching adjacent Polymarket lines that react faster to near-term headlines and can ripple into longer-dated pricing. One that\u2019s drawing attention is 77.5% \u201cNo\u201d on \u201cIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?\u201d with about $2.06M in volume, a positioning that can influence how participants think about immediate disruption risk versus business-as-usual assumptions. Keeping an eye on these parallel contracts helps contextualize whether fresh news is being treated as a short-term shock, a durable shift, or just noise across the platform\u2019s broader event-driven markets.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>+2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>+2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Implied odds (last 48h)02550Odds %Gadi EizenkotBenjamin NetanyahuNaftali BennettAvigdor Lieberman<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?<\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$28,899,825<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Gadi Eizenkot<\/td>\n<td>51.0%<\/td>\n<td>49.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Benjamin Netanyahu<\/td>\n<td>36.5%<\/td>\n<td>63.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Naftali Bennett<\/td>\n<td>7.0%<\/td>\n<td>93.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Avigdor Lieberman<\/td>\n<td>2.6%<\/td>\n<td>97.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+14 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related News<\/h2>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Polymarket Reprices Israel Next PM Odds After Likud\u2019s Scheduled Vote on Netanyahu Primaries Polymarket traders are pricing Gadi Eizenkot as the front-runner to be Israel\u2019s next prime minister, with his contract leading at 51.05% on about $28.90M in volume. The move follows a Likud internal vote scheduled for Monday, and the market\u2019s pricing shows a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":633235,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[25724,25704,25,2322,2323,3417],"class_list":{"0":"post-633234","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-israel-politics","9":"tag-israelgaza-prediction-markets","10":"tag-news","11":"tag-polymarket","12":"tag-prediction-markets","13":"tag-prime-minister"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/633234","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=633234"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/633234\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/633235"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=633234"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=633234"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=633234"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}