{"id":632101,"date":"2026-07-20T09:02:46","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T09:02:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/20260720-price-prediction-ton-one-more-leg-down-to-152"},"modified":"2026-07-20T09:02:46","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T09:02:46","slug":"ton-price-prediction-one-more-leg-down-to-1-52-before-bulls-get-their-turn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/07\/20\/ton-price-prediction-one-more-leg-down-to-1-52-before-bulls-get-their-turn\/","title":{"rendered":"TON Price Prediction: One More Leg Down to $1.52 Before Bulls Get Their Turn"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"figure mt-2\">\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/Profile\/Rebeca-Moen\">Rebeca Moen<\/a> <span class=\"publication-date ml-2\"> Jul 20, 2026 09:02<\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"lead\">TON is pinned at $1.60 beneath every meaningful moving average, with momentum completely flatlined and trapped futures longs creating a powder keg \u2014 a flush to $1.52\u2013$1.55 carries 60%+ probability &#8230;<\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news:443\/features\/C2350DF611C38FCE51BC99399DA15863B9C8C1E7DEDE8831AF6E2302C1B50074.jpg\" class=\"hero-image-link\"> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"rounded hero-image\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news:443\/features\/C2350DF611C38FCE51BC99399DA15863B9C8C1E7DEDE8831AF6E2302C1B50074.jpg\" alt=\"TON Price Prediction: One More Leg Down to $1.52 Before Bulls Get Their Turn\" loading=\"eager\" width=\"1200\" height=\"630\"> <\/a> <\/figure>\n<h2>Market Context: Why TON is Moving Now<\/h2>\n<p>TON is going nowhere fast \u2014 and that tells you everything. A 0.95% bounce in 24 hours sounds constructive until you realize price topped out at $1.64 intraday and immediately rejected back to $1.60, failing to reclaim even the SMA 20. That&#8217;s not recovery. That&#8217;s distribution wearing a recovery mask.<\/p>\n<p>The coin is structurally trapped. Every meaningful average above current price \u2014 the SMA 20 at $1.64, the SMA 50 at $1.78, the short-term EMA 26 at $1.66 \u2014 is acting as a ceiling, not a launching pad. The only thing keeping TON from immediate capitulation is the SMA 200 sitting at $1.55, which maps almost exactly to the top of the key demand zone. As <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\">Blockchain.news<\/a> flagged on July 19th, TON is firmly in &#8220;technical no-man&#8217;s-land&#8221; \u2014 and nothing in the last 24 hours has changed that read.<\/p>\n<p>Volume is the final confirmation. At roughly $7.7 million on Binance spot, this market has no conviction on either side. Low-volume sideways drifts don&#8217;t resolve higher. They resolve in the direction of least resistance, and that direction currently points down.<\/p>\n<h2>Indicator Alignment: Do the Technicals Support or Contradict the Current Setup?<\/h2>\n<p>The technical picture is almost unanimously bearish, with one dangerous wild card lurking in the derivatives data. Momentum has fully flatlined \u2014 the MACD histogram sitting at zero isn&#8217;t neutrality, it&#8217;s exhaustion. The MACD line itself is still negative at -0.049, meaning there&#8217;s been no short-term crossover into recovery territory whatsoever. This is a structure that stalls before it turns.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"card border-0 rounded-4 shadow-sm my-4 bg-body-tertiary news-inline-price-chart\" data-news-inline-chart=\"1\" data-binance-symbol=\"TONUSDT\" aria-labelledby=\"news-inline-pc-h-feae0d6f\">\n<div class=\"card-body\">\n<p class=\"small text-secondary mb-2\">Hourly candlesticks (about 96 bars), same endpoint as our cryptocurrency price pages. Numbers below refresh from 1-minute klines.<\/p>\n<p class=\"small mb-0 mt-2\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/price\/TON\/USD\">Full TON price, calculator &amp; analysis<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>RSI at 44.50 is the most critical data point right now. That reading gives bulls no oversold argument \u2014 there&#8217;s no washout, no capitulation, no spring being coiled. Price can grind from RSI 44 to RSI 35 without anyone batting an eye, which maps directly to a flush toward $1.52. The Bollinger Band positioning reinforces this: at a %B of 0.33, TON is hugging the lower third of the range, with the lower band sitting precisely at $1.52 \u2014 the exact downside target.<\/p>\n<p>The wild card is the funding rate. At 0.3538% per 8-hour settlement, longs are paying a heavy premium to hold positions in a market that is actively falling away from them. That&#8217;s not bullish. That&#8217;s a trap. When those trapped longs finally capitulate or get liquidated, the flush to the $1.52\u2013$1.55 zone will be fast and ugly. The Stochastic (%K at 37 crossing above %D at 29) could generate a brief, mechanical bounce \u2014 but that bounce gets sold hard into the $1.63\u2013$1.67 immediate resistance cluster before any real follow-through materializes.<\/p>\n<h2>Whales &amp; Analyst Targets: What Is Smart Money Preparing For?<\/h2>\n<p>There&#8217;s no ambiguity from the analytical side. <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\">Blockchain.news<\/a> has now placed the $1.52\u2013$1.55 demand zone as the primary target twice in eight days \u2014 July 11th and July 19th \u2014 each time assigning 60% probability to the downside move completing before any recovery earns credibility. When the same target gets reiterated as price continues to hover at $1.60 without a clean break higher, that&#8217;s not speculation anymore. That&#8217;s patience being rewarded.<\/p>\n<p>Smart money does not chase a coin stuck below its SMA 20, SMA 50, and EMA 26 simultaneously while spot volume runs at a fraction of what genuine accumulation looks like. The $7.7 million daily print is anemic by any standard. Institutional presence at these levels means one thing: waiting for the flush, not buying the drift. The $1.55 level \u2014 the SMA 200 and strong support confluence \u2014 is the line in the sand. If that cracks on rising volume, the lower Bollinger Band at $1.52 is the next conversation, and the structural damage from a confirmed break would require significantly more than a bounce to repair.<\/p>\n<h2>Strategic Positioning: Bull Case vs Bear Case Triggers<\/h2>\n<p>The bear case is the base case. As <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\">Blockchain.news<\/a> has consistently argued, the path of least resistance points lower, and the technicals currently back that view at every layer of analysis. The trade setup is clean: a break below $1.57 on expanding volume confirms that the $1.61 pivot point has definitively failed, and the target becomes $1.52\u2013$1.55 \u2014 where the Bollinger lower band, SMA 200, and prior demand all converge. That confluence is where TON has a genuine chance of finding a real bid. A 5\u20137% downside move from current levels with a defined stop above $1.67 is the probability-weighted play.<\/p>\n<p>The bull case requires a daily close above $1.67 \u2014 strong resistance \u2014 backed by a volume surge well above $12\u201315 million on Binance spot. That combination would signal the MACD is beginning a genuine bullish crossover rather than a dead-cat flatline, and that the elevated funding rate has burned off enough trapped longs to clear the air for sustained upside. From $1.67, the next real target is $1.75 (upper Bollinger Band), with $1.78 (SMA 50 reclaim) as the stretch that would signal an actual trend reversal is underway.<\/p>\n<p>Right now, that bull case requires multiple conditions to align simultaneously \u2014 conditions that aren&#8217;t close to being met. The flush to $1.52\u2013$1.55 needs to happen first. The more interesting long trade gets set up from there, not from here. Let the market do the work.<\/p>\n<p><span><i>Image source: Shutterstock<\/i><\/span> <!-- Divider --> <!-- Bookmark button -->  <!-- Bookmark button END --> <!-- Author info END --> <!-- Divider --> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rebeca Moen Jul 20, 2026 09:02 TON is pinned at $1.60 beneath every meaningful moving average, with momentum completely flatlined and trapped futures longs creating a powder keg \u2014 a flush to $1.52\u2013$1.55 carries 60%+ probability &#8230; Market Context: Why TON is Moving Now TON is going nowhere fast \u2014 and that tells you everything. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":632102,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[272,15592,8868],"class_list":{"0":"post-632101","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-analysis","9":"tag-ton-price-analysis","10":"tag-ton-price-prediction"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/632101","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=632101"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/632101\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/632102"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=632101"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=632101"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=632101"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}