{"id":631576,"date":"2026-07-19T07:34:08","date_gmt":"2026-07-19T07:34:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/20260719-price-prediction-xrp-70-off-its-ath-and-still"},"modified":"2026-07-19T07:34:08","modified_gmt":"2026-07-19T07:34:08","slug":"xrp-price-prediction-70-off-its-ath-and-still-no-floor-in-sight-1-04-is-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/07\/19\/xrp-price-prediction-70-off-its-ath-and-still-no-floor-in-sight-1-04-is-coming\/","title":{"rendered":"XRP Price Prediction: 70% Off Its ATH and Still No Floor in Sight \u2014 $1.04 Is Coming"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"figure mt-2\">\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/Profile\/Joerg-Hiller\">Joerg Hiller<\/a> <span class=\"publication-date ml-2\"> Jul 19, 2026 07:34<\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"lead\">XRP is grinding at $1.10 with every major moving average stacked overhead and momentum completely flatlined \u2014 the path of least resistance points squarely toward a test of $1.04, and bulls need a c&#8230;<\/p>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news:443\/features\/BB5AE86CA131628CBF2A2A7728540E35F7C926EBBADA9F2996142EA7418B0CC2.jpg\" class=\"hero-image-link\"> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"rounded hero-image\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news:443\/features\/BB5AE86CA131628CBF2A2A7728540E35F7C926EBBADA9F2996142EA7418B0CC2.jpg\" alt=\"XRP Price Prediction: 70% Off Its ATH and Still No Floor in Sight \u2014 $1.04 Is Coming\" loading=\"eager\" width=\"1200\" height=\"630\"> <\/a> <\/figure>\n<h2>Market Context: Why XRP Is Where It Is<\/h2>\n<p>Twelve months ago, XRP was printing a cycle high near $3.65. Today it&#8217;s limping along at $1.10 \u2014 a 70% drawdown that doesn&#8217;t smell like consolidation. It smells like distribution that isn&#8217;t finished yet. The January 2026 bounce told a better story: VTrader.io noted XRP rallying roughly 25% off its December 2025 lows near $1.77 to reach $2.09, while Gate US flagged a confirmed breakout above a multi-month descending trendline with price carving out a $2.10\u2013$2.42 range. Both of those developments are now six months stale and XRP has since shed another 47% on top of them.<\/p>\n<p>What&#8217;s happening right now at $1.10 is a market starved of conviction. A 24-hour trading range of just two cents \u2014 $1.08 to $1.10 \u2014 on $27.7 million in Binance spot volume is not a coiled spring. That&#8217;s a market where neither side wants to commit. Coverage from <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\">Blockchain.news<\/a> reflects how macro crypto sentiment has deteriorated sharply since Q1 2026, and XRP&#8217;s failure to hold any of its reclaimed levels is consistent with broader demand destruction across the altcoin complex.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"card border-0 rounded-4 shadow-sm my-4 bg-body-tertiary news-inline-price-chart\" data-news-inline-chart=\"1\" data-binance-symbol=\"XRPUSDT\" aria-labelledby=\"news-inline-pc-h-c4943784\">\n<div class=\"card-body\">\n<p class=\"small text-secondary mb-2\">Hourly candlesticks (about 96 bars), same endpoint as our cryptocurrency price pages. Numbers below refresh from 1-minute klines.<\/p>\n<p class=\"small mb-0 mt-2\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/price\/XRP\/USD\">Full XRP price, calculator &amp; analysis<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<h2>Indicator Alignment: The Technicals Are Not Your Friend Here<\/h2>\n<p>The moving average stack says everything. The 200-day SMA sits at $1.42 \u2014 nearly 30% above current price \u2014 and the 50-day at $1.13 is the first overhead ceiling XRP needs to clear before any recovery narrative gets credibility. Every meaningful average is above price. That&#8217;s not a neutral environment. That&#8217;s a bear market structure.<\/p>\n<p>Momentum has flatlined near mid-range, with the Stochastic hinting at a mild curl higher \u2014 %D at 31, %K nudging toward 39 \u2014 but those setups fail routinely inside established downtrends. The MACD tells the same story: signal line and value are locked together at negligible negative levels, with a histogram reading of essentially zero. That&#8217;s not a bottom forming. That&#8217;s a market paralyzed, and paralyzed markets in downtrends resolve lower more often than not.<\/p>\n<p>The Bollinger Band picture adds one more nail. XRP is hovering at the midpoint of its band, which means there&#8217;s roughly equal measured distance to the upper band at $1.16 and the lower at $1.04. Given the trend context, gravity wins \u2014 the $1.04 test is the higher-probability path. The one data point worth watching is the slightly negative futures funding rate at -0.0022%. Shorts are marginally overpaying, which technically limits cascade risk. But this reading is nowhere near the deeply negative territory you&#8217;d need to call a genuine squeeze setup \u2014 as tracked regularly on <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\">Blockchain.news<\/a>, funding at these modest negative levels tends to precede choppy sideways grinding rather than explosive directional moves.<\/p>\n<h2>Whales &amp; Analyst Targets: The Silence Is a Signal<\/h2>\n<p>There are no fresh institutional views or whale positioning reports to work with. The last substantive analysis came from January, when XRP still had the narrative of a recovery trade behind it. That narrative is dead. When smart money desks go quiet on an asset mid-drawdown, it typically means one of two things: they&#8217;ve already rotated out, or they&#8217;re watching it bleed toward a level where the risk\/reward becomes structurally compelling. Given the ATH was $3.65 just twelve months ago, there&#8217;s a credible argument that patient capital is eyeing the $0.85\u2013$1.00 zone as the real accumulation range \u2014 not $1.10.<\/p>\n<p>Anyone framing $1.10 as &#8220;cheap because it&#8217;s off the ATH&#8221; is selling you a story. Cheap relative to a speculative blowoff top is not the same as cheap relative to intrinsic demand. XRP needs a fundamental catalyst \u2014 regulatory finality, institutional adoption momentum, or a macro risk-on pivot \u2014 to attract real size back into this name. Right now, none of those are present in the data.<\/p>\n<h2>Strategic Positioning: Two Paths, One Clear Favorite<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Bear case \u2014 65% probability:<\/strong> XRP fails to reclaim the $1.13 50-day SMA, volume continues to dry up, and the $1.08 strong support gives way. Below that, there&#8217;s meaningful air down to the $1.00 psychological level and potentially the $0.85\u2013$0.90 range where longer-term structural support exists. The trigger to watch is a daily close below $1.07 on any volume expansion \u2014 that&#8217;s the trapdoor opening. As noted across <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\">Blockchain.news<\/a>, XRP has repeatedly failed to build higher lows since its Q3 2025 peak, and that pattern doesn&#8217;t reverse without a structural catalyst.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bull case \u2014 35% probability:<\/strong> A sustained daily close above $1.13 on volume exceeding $50 million Binance spot would be the first legitimate sign of a regime shift. From there, $1.25\u2013$1.30 is the first real target before confronting the 200-day wall at $1.42. Getting back above the 200-day would flip the structure entirely and could open a measured run toward $1.70+. But that&#8217;s a conditional story \u2014 it requires a trigger that isn&#8217;t in the building yet.<\/p>\n<p>The trade here is not heroic. If you&#8217;re already long below $1.08, honor that level as your line in the sand. If you&#8217;re considering fresh entry, you&#8217;re choosing between two setups: either wait for the $1.13 reclaim with volume confirmation, or wait for a capitulation flush into the $1.00\u2013$1.05 zone with a defined stop below $0.95. Buying $1.10 in a vacuum \u2014 in the middle of a range, below every key average, on dead volume \u2014 is how retail accounts get liquidated in slow motion.<\/p>\n<p><span><i>Image source: Shutterstock<\/i><\/span> <!-- Divider --> <!-- Bookmark button -->  <!-- Bookmark button END --> <!-- Author info END --> <!-- Divider --> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Joerg Hiller Jul 19, 2026 07:34 XRP is grinding at $1.10 with every major moving average stacked overhead and momentum completely flatlined \u2014 the path of least resistance points squarely toward a test of $1.04, and bulls need a c&#8230; Market Context: Why XRP Is Where It Is Twelve months ago, XRP was printing a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":631577,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[272,1279,7246],"class_list":{"0":"post-631576","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-analysis","9":"tag-xrp-price-analysis","10":"tag-xrp-price-prediction"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/631576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=631576"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/631576\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/631577"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=631576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=631576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=631576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}