{"id":631014,"date":"2026-07-18T00:15:56","date_gmt":"2026-07-18T00:15:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/polymarket-keeps-aug-31-usiran-ceasefire-odds-at-515-after-7-nights-0hnn4c6uftug0"},"modified":"2026-07-18T00:15:56","modified_gmt":"2026-07-18T00:15:56","slug":"polymarket-keeps-aug-31-us-iran-ceasefire-odds-at-51-5-after-7-nights","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/07\/18\/polymarket-keeps-aug-31-us-iran-ceasefire-odds-at-51-5-after-7-nights\/","title":{"rendered":"Polymarket keeps Aug. 31 US\u2013Iran ceasefire odds at 51.5% after 7 nights"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/0C987794A110DD96CC06B6C18D7A594A0AA284A08D6F9575FA1E49FA23AE3C37.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Seventh Night of US\u2013Iran Exchanges Keeps Polymarket Ceasefire Ladder Low Near-Term, Near-Coinflip by Aug. 31<\/h2>\n<p>Polymarket traders are pricing a 51.5% chance that a US\u2013Iran \u201ceffective ceasefire\u201d is in place by the August 31 rung, on $615,750 in matched volume. The latest catalyst is fresh reporting that the two sides have exchanged attacks for a seventh consecutive night, and the ladder pricing shows where traders draw the line between \u201csoon\u201d and \u201cby late August.\u201d<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket\u2019s leading rung is \u201cby August 31\u201d at 51.5% Yes (48.5% No).<\/li>\n<li>After news of a seventh straight night of exchanges, the curve still prices low near-term ceasefire odds while keeping a near-coinflip by Aug. 31.<\/li>\n<li>The market is active and resolves by 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC; the past 24h shows -2.0pp with a reversal flagged.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A live update report says the US and Iran have exchanged attacks for a seventh consecutive night, extending the current run of hostilities. The item frames the situation as ongoing and unresolved in the near term.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Ladder &amp; Liquidity Check: $615,750 Matched as July 18 at 2% Yes vs Aug. 31 at 51.5% Yes (-2.0pp, reversal_detected)<\/h2>\n<p>This is a price-ladder market: each date is its own Yes\/No contract on whether an \u201ceffective ceasefire\u201d is achieved by that deadline, not a single bet on which date will happen. The curve is steep at the front end\u2014July 18 is 2.0% Yes \/ 98.0% No and July 24 is 14.5% Yes \/ 85.5% No\u2014while later rungs move toward a coin flip, with August 14 at 32.5% Yes \/ 67.5% No and August 31 leading at 51.5% Yes \/ 48.5% No. Despite $615,750 in volume, the headline rung is flat on the snapshot (51.5% vs 51.5%), and the 24h\/7d read is slightly lower at -2.0pp with \u201creversal_detected: true,\u201d suggesting recent two-way repricing rather than a one-direction drift. The historical summary also shows the latest odds (51.5%) sitting below the average of the last five points (55.9), consistent with a modest pullback even as consensus is tagged \u201cstable,\u201d which fits a market that agrees on \u201cnot imminently\u201d but is split on \u201cby late August.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Watch whether pricing compresses between the August 14 (32.5% Yes) and August 31 (51.5% Yes) rungs\u2014tightening would imply traders are shifting probability mass toward a narrower timeline. Also watch for changes in the 24h change metric and whether the \u201creversal_detected\u201d flag persists as new information arrives before the 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC resolution deadline.<\/p>\n<h2>What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Related Macro and Crypto Contracts to Hedge Geopolitical Risk Shocks<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond the ceasefire ladder, traders often scan adjacent Polymarket contracts that reprice the same risk from different angles and timelines. Big-volume sentiment is concentrated in 71.5% on \u201cWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?\u201d ($44,192,504) and 89.5% on \u201cWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?\u201d ($22,319,841), while the near-term shipping channel is heavily skewed with 98.75% on \u201cStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?\u201d ($17,595,438). Longer-horizon political continuity also has a clear favorite at 77.35% for \u201cIran leader end of 2026?\u201d ($30,410,638), giving traders multiple ways to hedge or express views as headlines hit.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>-2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>-2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Implied odds (last 48h)2550Odds %August 31August 14July 31July 24<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by&#8230;? (2 week pause)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Aug 31, 2026 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$615,750<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>August 31<\/td>\n<td>51.5%<\/td>\n<td>48.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>August 14<\/td>\n<td>32.5%<\/td>\n<td>67.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>July 31<\/td>\n<td>22.5%<\/td>\n<td>77.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>July 24<\/td>\n<td>14.5%<\/td>\n<td>85.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+1 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related News<\/h2>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Seventh Night of US\u2013Iran Exchanges Keeps Polymarket Ceasefire Ladder Low Near-Term, Near-Coinflip by Aug. 31 Polymarket traders are pricing a 51.5% chance that a US\u2013Iran \u201ceffective ceasefire\u201d is in place by the August 31 rung, on $615,750 in matched volume. The latest catalyst is fresh reporting that the two sides have exchanged attacks for a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":631015,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[25964,77,25643,25,2322,2323],"class_list":{"0":"post-631014","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-ceasefire","9":"tag-iran","10":"tag-irangulf-prediction-markets","11":"tag-news","12":"tag-polymarket","13":"tag-prediction-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/631014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=631014"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/631014\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/631015"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=631014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=631014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=631014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}