{"id":623763,"date":"2026-07-03T12:15:07","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T12:15:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/weak-us-payrolls-lift-gold-as-polymarket-sees-776-odds-of-zero-fed-cuts-0hnmovis90f80"},"modified":"2026-07-03T12:15:07","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T12:15:07","slug":"weak-us-payrolls-lift-gold-as-polymarket-sees-77-6-odds-of-zero-fed-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/07\/03\/weak-us-payrolls-lift-gold-as-polymarket-sees-77-6-odds-of-zero-fed-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"Weak US payrolls lift gold as Polymarket sees 77.6% odds of zero Fed cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/DE4CCCBE8D995676C7773FEC30143C333B6FA8E11235684D2F7E9E9E2666B1BA.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Weak US Payrolls Lift Gold, Push Polymarket Traders to Reprice \u201cHow Many Fed Rate Cuts in 2026?\u201d<\/h2>\n<p>Weak US nonfarm payrolls data helped lift gold and nudged investors toward a more dovish view of the Federal Reserve, weighing on rate-hike expectations. On Polymarket, that shift showed up in pricing for the \u201cHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?\u201d ladder, even as the market continued to favor no cuts.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket prices the leading outcome as 0 Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 77.55% (No 22.45%).<\/li>\n<li>Traders repriced after a report linked weaker US nonfarm payrolls to softer Fed rate-hike expectations, supporting gold.<\/li>\n<li>The contract resolves on 2026-12-31; the market has traded about $40.43 million in volume.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Gold extended gains after weak US nonfarm payrolls data weighed on expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The report said the labor-market figures pushed investors toward a view that the Fed may have less room to keep tightening. That shift in interest-rate expectations underpinned demand for the non-yielding metal. The move in gold was framed as a reaction to changing assumptions about the path of US policy rates. The focus in markets remained on how incoming data could alter the perceived outlook for Fed policy.<\/p>\n<h2>Fed Cuts 2026 Odds and Volume: 0 Cuts at 77.55% (Down From 82.1%) as Trading Hits $40.43M<\/h2>\n<p>Polymarket\u2019s \u201cHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?\u201d ladder still concentrates probability at the top rung, with 0 cuts priced at 77.55% Yes versus 22.45% No. The next rungs drop sharply: 1 cut is 14.5% Yes \/ 85.5% No, 2 cuts are 4.05% Yes \/ 95.95% No, and 3 cuts are 1.95% Yes \/ 98.05% No. At the tail, odds imply near-dismissal of deeper easing, with 4 cuts at 0.45% Yes \/ 99.55% No and 12+ cuts at 0.35% Yes \/ 99.65% No. Total volume stood at $40,426,574, and the leading 0-cuts price was down from 82.1% to 77.55% at the latest snapshot.<\/p>\n<p>Watch whether pricing migrates from the 0-cuts rung toward 1-cut or 2-cuts, and whether liquidity concentrates around the middle strikes as the 2026 path becomes clearer.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond Fed Policy: Other High-Volume Macro and Geopolitical Markets Polymarket Bettors Are Tracking<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond the longer-dated easing debate, Polymarket activity is also clustering around nearer-term policy timing and headline political risk. In \u201cFed Decision in July?\u201d, \u201cNo change\u201d leads at 90.5% with $35,735,840 in volume, while \u201cFed Decision in September?\u201d shows \u201cNo change\u201d at 68.5% on $1,335,374. Outside rates, traders are also positioning for 2026 control of Congress, with the \u201cRepublican Party\u201d leading \u201cWhich party will win the Senate in 2026?\u201d at 56.5% on $3,077,126.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>+2.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>+2.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Implied odds (last 48h)0255075Odds %0 (0 bps)1 (25 bps)2 (50 bps)3 (75 bps)<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?<\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$40,426,574<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>0 (0 bps)<\/td>\n<td>77.5%<\/td>\n<td>22.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1 (25 bps)<\/td>\n<td>14.5%<\/td>\n<td>85.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2 (50 bps)<\/td>\n<td>4.0%<\/td>\n<td>96.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3 (75 bps)<\/td>\n<td>1.9%<\/td>\n<td>98.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+9 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related News<\/h2>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Weak US Payrolls Lift Gold, Push Polymarket Traders to Reprice \u201cHow Many Fed Rate Cuts in 2026?\u201d Weak US nonfarm payrolls data helped lift gold and nudged investors toward a more dovish view of the Federal Reserve, weighing on rate-hike expectations. On Polymarket, that shift showed up in pricing for the \u201cHow many Fed rate [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":623764,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[59,156,4748,25445,25,2323],"class_list":{"0":"post-623763","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-federal-reserve","9":"tag-gold","10":"tag-interest-rates","11":"tag-macrofed-prediction-markets","12":"tag-news","13":"tag-prediction-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/623763","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=623763"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/623763\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/623764"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=623763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=623763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=623763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}