{"id":623642,"date":"2026-07-03T08:33:42","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T08:33:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/russia-steps-up-strikes-as-polymarket-lifts-putin-out-by-2026-odds-to-115-0hnmoreh0cl00"},"modified":"2026-07-03T08:33:42","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T08:33:42","slug":"russia-steps-up-strikes-as-polymarket-lifts-putin-out-by-2026-odds-to-11-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/07\/03\/russia-steps-up-strikes-as-polymarket-lifts-putin-out-by-2026-odds-to-11-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Russia steps up strikes as Polymarket lifts Putin-out-by-2026 odds to 11.5%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/UK%20United%20Kingdom%E2%80%99s%20Bitcoin%20BANNED.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Ukraine Strike Escalation Pushes Polymarket Odds Up on \u201cPutin Out by Dec. 31, 2026?\u201d<\/h2>\n<p>A wave of Russian strikes across Ukraine, including a mass attack on Kyiv, kept the war and Kremlin decision-making in focus as Polymarket traders nudged up the implied chance that Vladimir Putin leaves office before the end of 2026. The Polymarket market &#8220;Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?&#8221; was last priced at 11.5% for Yes.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket prices an 88.5% chance that Putin is not out as Russia&#8217;s president by Dec. 31, 2026, versus 11.5% for Yes.<\/li>\n<li>The Yes price has risen to 11.5% from 8.5%, tracking heightened attention on escalation signals tied to major strikes on Ukraine.<\/li>\n<li>The contract resolves on Dec. 31, 2026; the latest snapshot shows $14,519,104 in volume.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Russian overnight attacks on Ukraine killed at least four people and injured 10 others, officials said on Friday. In the Sumy region near the Russian border, authorities said a drone hit a house, killing two women, an elderly man and a girl under the age of 2. Ukraine also reported seven people injured in the city of Kryvyi Rih after a missile strike. The attacks followed a deadly day in Kyiv, where officials said Russian strikes killed at least 30 people and injured more than 90, prompting a day of mourning and warnings that casualties could still rise as rescue work continued. Ukraine&#8217;s air force spokesperson said Russia launched 74 missiles and 496 drones, while Moscow&#8217;s defense ministry said the strikes hit military and energy facilities and were retaliation for Ukrainian drone attacks; the Kremlin said Putin was briefed.<\/p>\n<h2>Polymarket Pricing and Liquidity: Yes Rises to 11.5% (from 8.5%) as Volume Hits $14,519,104<\/h2>\n<p>On Polymarket, the binary contract is trading at 11.5% Yes and 88.5% No, a 3.0 percentage-point move higher versus the prior 8.5% Yes reading. Total traded volume stands at $14,519,104, indicating deep liquidity for a long-dated political risk contract. Despite the uptick in Yes, positioning remains heavily skewed to No at nearly nine-in-ten implied probability.<\/p>\n<p>The market is set to resolve on 2026-12-31T18:30:00+00:00; traders will likely key off any further large shifts in the Yes price from 11.5% and whether volume accelerates beyond $14.5 million.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond the Kremlin: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond leadership-risk pricing, Polymarket traders are also crowding into other Russia-linked political contracts, including 55.5% on \u201cWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?\u201d with $13,955,797 in volume\u2014an indication that positioning is spreading across institutional power balances as well as headline geopolitical risk.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>-2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>-2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Implied odds (last 48h)Odds %Putin out as President of R\u2026<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Leading implied prob.:<\/strong> 11.5%<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$14,519,104<\/li>\n<li><strong>Top outcomes:<\/strong> Yes: Yes 11.5% \/ No 88.5%; No: Yes 11.5% \/ No 88.5%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Related News<\/h2>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ukraine Strike Escalation Pushes Polymarket Odds Up on \u201cPutin Out by Dec. 31, 2026?\u201d A wave of Russian strikes across Ukraine, including a mass attack on Kyiv, kept the war and Kremlin decision-making in focus as Polymarket traders nudged up the implied chance that Vladimir Putin leaves office before the end of 2026. The Polymarket [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":623643,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[25,2322,2323,4565,25641,3543],"class_list":{"0":"post-623642","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-news","9":"tag-polymarket","10":"tag-prediction-markets","11":"tag-russia-ukraine","12":"tag-ukrainerussia-prediction-markets","13":"tag-vladimir-putin"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/623642","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=623642"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/623642\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/623643"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=623642"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=623642"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=623642"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}