{"id":622736,"date":"2026-07-01T12:19:13","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T12:19:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/zelenskyy-touts-repeat-ufa-strike-as-polymarket-lifts-eizenkot-to-4055-0hnmnd9c94j80"},"modified":"2026-07-01T12:19:13","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T12:19:13","slug":"zelenskyy-touts-repeat-ufa-strike-as-polymarket-lifts-eizenkot-to-40-55","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/07\/01\/zelenskyy-touts-repeat-ufa-strike-as-polymarket-lifts-eizenkot-to-40-55\/","title":{"rendered":"Zelenskyy touts repeat Ufa strike as Polymarket lifts Eizenkot to 40.55%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/Business%20candle%20stick%20graph%20chart%20of%20stock%20market%20investment%20trading%20design-min.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Israel Next Prime Minister Odds: Gadi Eizenkot Jumps to 40.55% After Zelenskyy Claims New Ufa Refinery Strike<\/h2>\n<p>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces struck Russia\u2019s Ufa oil refinery for the second time in a week, extending a campaign of long-range attacks that he said has contributed to fuel shortages in Russia. On Polymarket, traders nudged up the leading line in the contract \u201cWho will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?\u201d with Gadi Eizenkot implied at 40.55%.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot as the top pick at 40.55% to be Israel\u2019s next prime minister after the next election.<\/li>\n<li>The repricing came as Zelenskyy said Ukraine hit Russia\u2019s Ufa oil refinery again, alongside a claimed strike on a missile-components plant in Penza.<\/li>\n<li>The market is set to resolve by 2026-12-31, with $23,709,936 in volume and the leader up 1.45 percentage points from 39.1%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces struck Russia\u2019s major Ufa oil refinery for the second time in a week, as Kyiv steps up long-range attacks on Russian oil facilities. Zelenskyy said the refinery is one of Russia\u2019s largest producers of lubricants and is located more than 1,000 kilometers from Ukraine. He also said Ukraine struck a plant producing missile components in Russia\u2019s Penza region, about 500 kilometers from Ukraine. Russian officials did not confirm the strikes, which could not be independently verified. Russia\u2019s Defense Ministry reported intercepting 179 Ukrainian drones across 16 Russian regions, the annexed Crimea, and over waters of the Azov and Black seas, while Penza\u2019s governor said debris from downed drones damaged a power line and fell on a building under construction.<\/p>\n<h2>Polymarket Pricing Snapshot: $23.7M Volume, Eizenkot +1.45pp to 40.55% vs Netanyahu at 36.5%<\/h2>\n<p>Polymarket\u2019s multi-outcome market on the next prime minister of Israel shows a tight top tier, led by Gadi Eizenkot at 40.55% Yes \/ 59.45% No versus Benjamin Netanyahu at 36.5% Yes \/ 63.5% No. Naftali Bennett is a distant third at 11.0% Yes \/ 89.0% No, while Avigdor Lieberman sits at 3.35% Yes \/ 96.65% No. Total matched volume was $23,709,936, and the leader\u2019s implied probability was last marked up by 1.45 percentage points to 40.55%, signaling incremental but not decisive conviction at the top of the book.<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket traders will be watching for shifts in the top-two spread between Eizenkot and Netanyahu, and whether volume concentrates into the frontrunner or disperses across second-tier candidates ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution date.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond Israel Politics: Other High-Volume Geopolitical Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Tracking<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond Israeli electoral speculation, traders are also concentrating on neighboring diplomatic flashpoints, with \u201cWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?\u201d pricing a 94.75% \u201cNo\u201d and about $1,470,401 in volume. The contract\u2019s 1.9 percentage-point move underscores how Polymarket participants are leaning into binary, deadline-driven geopolitical outcomes even as attention rotates across the region.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>+2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>+2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Implied odds (last 48h)025Odds %Gadi EizenkotBenjamin NetanyahuNaftali BennettAvigdor Lieberman<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Gadi Eizenkot<\/td>\n<td>40.5%<\/td>\n<td>59.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Benjamin Netanyahu<\/td>\n<td>36.5%<\/td>\n<td>63.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Naftali Bennett<\/td>\n<td>11.0%<\/td>\n<td>89.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Avigdor Lieberman<\/td>\n<td>3.4%<\/td>\n<td>96.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+14 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Israel Next Prime Minister Odds: Gadi Eizenkot Jumps to 40.55% After Zelenskyy Claims New Ufa Refinery Strike Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces struck Russia\u2019s Ufa oil refinery for the second time in a week, extending a campaign of long-range attacks that he said has contributed to fuel shortages in Russia. On Polymarket, traders [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":622737,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[25846,25704,25,94,2322,2323],"class_list":{"0":"post-622736","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-israel-gaza","9":"tag-israelgaza-prediction-markets","10":"tag-news","11":"tag-politics","12":"tag-polymarket","13":"tag-prediction-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622736","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=622736"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622736\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/622737"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=622736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=622736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=622736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}