{"id":622318,"date":"2026-06-30T18:27:09","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T18:27:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/supreme-court-spurns-trump-carroll-appeal-as-polymarket-holds-rfk-jr-at-49-0hnmmqfl93lo0"},"modified":"2026-06-30T18:27:09","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T18:27:09","slug":"supreme-court-spurns-trump-carroll-appeal-as-polymarket-holds-rfk-jr-at-49","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/30\/supreme-court-spurns-trump-carroll-appeal-as-polymarket-holds-rfk-jr-at-49\/","title":{"rendered":"Supreme Court spurns Trump Carroll appeal as Polymarket holds RFK Jr. at 49%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/F9F6C58D99E67A48187F19515138D81D7F4383C99D2CF085E5C7D676F3E5039A.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Supreme Court Rejects Trump\u2019s E. Jean Carroll Appeal, Polymarket\u2019s 2028 GOP Nominee Odds Stay Flat<\/h2>\n<p>The Supreme Court declined to hear Donald Trump\u2019s appeal in the E. Jean Carroll case, keeping the lower-court decision in place. On Polymarket, pricing in the \u201cRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028\u201d market was flat, with no change in the leading contract odds at the time of publication.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the top pick for the 2028 Republican nomination at 49% (Yes 49% \/ No 51%).<\/li>\n<li>After the Supreme Court refused to hear Trump\u2019s E. Jean Carroll appeal, the Polymarket market showed no immediate repricing in the leader.<\/li>\n<li>The contract is set to resolve on Nov. 7, 2028; the market\u2019s 24-hour and 7-day changes were both 0.0 percentage points.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Supreme Court refused to hear Donald Trump\u2019s appeal in the E. Jean Carroll matter, leaving the lower-court outcome intact. The decision means the justices will not revisit Trump\u2019s challenge through this appeal route. The case stems from Carroll\u2019s litigation against Trump and has remained a high-profile legal dispute. With the court declining review, the existing judgment and associated legal consequences remain in effect for now.<\/p>\n<h2>\u201cRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028\u201d Sees $666M Volume as RFK Jr Holds 49% and J.D. Vance Sits at 41.85%<\/h2>\n<p>Polymarket showed heavy activity in the \u201cRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028\u201d market, with $666,459,743 in volume and a flat read on the leader at 49%. The top line priced Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at Yes 49% \/ No 51%, while J.D. Vance followed at Yes 41.85% \/ No 58.15% and Marco Rubio at Yes 22.15% \/ No 77.85%. Farther down the board, Donald Trump was priced at Yes 1.95% \/ No 98.05% and Tucker Carlson at Yes 3.95% \/ No 96.05%, showing a steep drop-off after the top contenders. With 0.0 percentage-point moves over both 24 hours and seven days, the tape signaled stable positioning rather than a broad shift in implied probabilities.<\/p>\n<p>Watch whether pricing concentrates further in the top two names or broadens across the field as liquidity shifts; the market is scheduled to resolve on Nov. 7, 2028.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond the 2028 GOP Race: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Bettors Are Tracking<\/h2>\n<p>Away from the 2028 GOP-nomination tape, Polymarket flow has also concentrated in a mix of election, leadership-risk and geopolitics contracts. \u201cPresidential Election Winner 2028\u201d has drawn $642,225,515 in volume with J.D. Vance leading at 19.55%, while \u201cVenezuela leader end of 2026?\u201d shows Nicol\u00e1s Maduro at 79.85% after a 5.6-point move. In Europe, \u201cNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)\u201d prices Starmer &#8211; UK PM at 91.5% (up 0.5), and the Iran-focused \u201cWho will sign U.S. x Iran deal?\u201d is pinned to Masoud Pezeshkian at 100.0%.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>+0.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>+0.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Implied odds (last 48h)025Odds %J.D. VanceMarco RubioTucker Carlson<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/republican-presidential-nominee-2028\">Republican Presidential Nominee 2028<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Nov 07, 2028 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$666,459,743<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Robert F. Kennedy Jr.<\/td>\n<td>49.0%<\/td>\n<td>51.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>J.D. Vance<\/td>\n<td>41.9%<\/td>\n<td>58.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Marco Rubio<\/td>\n<td>22.1%<\/td>\n<td>77.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tucker Carlson<\/td>\n<td>4.0%<\/td>\n<td>96.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+32 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/republican-presidential-nominee-2028\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Supreme Court Rejects Trump\u2019s E. Jean Carroll Appeal, Polymarket\u2019s 2028 GOP Nominee Odds Stay Flat The Supreme Court declined to hear Donald Trump\u2019s appeal in the E. Jean Carroll case, keeping the lower-court decision in place. On Polymarket, pricing in the \u201cRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028\u201d market was flat, with no change in the leading contract [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":622319,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[910,25438,25,2322,2323,11276],"class_list":{"0":"post-622318","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-donald-trump","9":"tag-donald-trump-prediction-markets","10":"tag-news","11":"tag-polymarket","12":"tag-prediction-markets","13":"tag-supreme-court"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=622318"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622318\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/622319"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=622318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=622318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=622318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}