{"id":621833,"date":"2026-06-29T20:35:42","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T20:35:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/analysts-turn-bullish-on-applied-ad-as-polymarket-sees-78-odds-of-no-fed-cuts-0hnmm3dldm8s0"},"modified":"2026-06-29T20:35:42","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T20:35:42","slug":"analysts-turn-bullish-on-applied-a-d-as-polymarket-sees-78-odds-of-no-fed-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/29\/analysts-turn-bullish-on-applied-a-d-as-polymarket-sees-78-odds-of-no-fed-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts turn bullish on Applied A &amp; D as Polymarket sees 78% odds of no Fed cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/Stock%20trading%20concept%20with%20woman%20using%20her%20laptop.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Fed Rate Cuts 2026 on Polymarket: \u201c0 Cuts\u201d Still Leads as Odds Slip to 77.95%<\/h2>\n<p>Wall Street analysts initiated bullish coverage of newly public defense and space supplier Applied Aerospace &amp; Defense after its IPO and post-blackout debut, outlining growth and margin expansion scenarios. On Polymarket, traders still heavily favor a 2026 outcome of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts, though the leading rung has softened to 77.95%.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket prices the 0 (0 bps) outcome as the leader at 77.95% for how many Fed rate cuts happen in 2026.<\/li>\n<li>The implied odds for zero cuts have moved down from 82.10% to 77.95% as traders repositioned in the ladder market.<\/li>\n<li>The contract resolves on 2026-12-31, with the leading outcome up 2.25 percentage points over the past 24 hours and 7 days.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Applied Aerospace &amp; Defense drew fresh attention from Wall Street as analysts began coverage following the end of the post-IPO blackout period. The company, formed through a merger between Applied Aerospace Structures and PCX Aerosystems, went public earlier this month and raised $650 million by pricing shares at $20 each. The stock ended last Friday at $20.53, up more than 2% from its IPO price. Several firms initiated buy- or outperform-equivalent ratings, with published targets including $23, $24, and $30. Analysts highlighted the company\u2019s exposure to defense and space programs, expectations for mid-teen organic growth, and potential margin expansion, while also flagging execution and integration of the combined businesses as a key focus.<\/p>\n<h2>Trading Data: $39.76M Volume with 0 Cuts at 77.95% vs 1 Cut at 12.50% Ahead of 2026-12-31<\/h2>\n<p>Polymarket\u2019s ladder on \u201cHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?\u201d has about $39.76 million in volume, with the leading rung \u201c0 (0 bps)\u201d at 77.95% Yes versus 22.05% No. Traders assign far lower odds to any cuts, with \u201c1 (25 bps)\u201d at 12.50% Yes \/ 87.50% No. Higher-cut outcomes are priced as long shots: \u201c2 (50 bps)\u201d sits at 3.15% Yes \/ 96.85% No and \u201c3 (75 bps)\u201d at 3.45% Yes \/ 96.55% No. The pricing shows a strong skew toward no cuts while leaving only thin implied probability across multiple cut-count rungs into the 2026-12-31 resolution date.<\/p>\n<p>Monitor whether the dominant 0-cuts rung continues to drift from 77.95% and whether liquidity concentrates in the 1-cut and 2-cut rungs ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution date.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond the Fed: Applied Aerospace &amp; Defense IPO Sparks Bullish Analyst Targets of $23\u2013$30<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond the longer-dated rate-cut ladder, traders are also concentrating in nearer-term policy and political risk contracts on Polymarket. \u201cFed Decision in July?\u201d shows \u201cNo change\u201d leading at 80.5% on $25.78 million in volume after a 9-point move, while \u201cWhich party will win the House in 2026?\u201d has the Democratic Party on top at 82.5% with about $7.98 million traded, underscoring how quickly positioning can shift across macro and election themes.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>+2.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>+2.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Implied odds (last 48h)0255075Odds %0 (0 bps)1 (25 bps)3 (75 bps)2 (50 bps)<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026\">How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$39,759,792<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>0 (0 bps)<\/td>\n<td>78.0%<\/td>\n<td>22.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1 (25 bps)<\/td>\n<td>12.5%<\/td>\n<td>87.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3 (75 bps)<\/td>\n<td>3.5%<\/td>\n<td>96.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2 (50 bps)<\/td>\n<td>3.1%<\/td>\n<td>96.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+9 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed Rate Cuts 2026 on Polymarket: \u201c0 Cuts\u201d Still Leads as Odds Slip to 77.95% Wall Street analysts initiated bullish coverage of newly public defense and space supplier Applied Aerospace &amp; Defense after its IPO and post-blackout debut, outlining growth and margin expansion scenarios. On Polymarket, traders still heavily favor a 2026 outcome of zero [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":621834,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[59,4748,25445,25,2322,2323],"class_list":{"0":"post-621833","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-federal-reserve","9":"tag-interest-rates","10":"tag-macrofed-prediction-markets","11":"tag-news","12":"tag-polymarket","13":"tag-prediction-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/621833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=621833"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/621833\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/621834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=621833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=621833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=621833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}