{"id":621151,"date":"2026-06-28T12:28:38","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T12:28:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/bofa-sees-75-bps-fed-hikes-as-polymarket-keeps-2026-no-cuts-at-77-0hnml1sgget80"},"modified":"2026-06-28T12:28:38","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T12:28:38","slug":"bofa-sees-75-bps-fed-hikes-as-polymarket-keeps-2026-no-cuts-at-77","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/28\/bofa-sees-75-bps-fed-hikes-as-polymarket-keeps-2026-no-cuts-at-77\/","title":{"rendered":"BofA sees 75 bps Fed hikes as Polymarket keeps 2026 no-cuts at 77%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/Stock%20trading%20concept%20with%20woman%20using%20her%20laptop.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Bank of America Sees 75 bps Fed Hikes; Polymarket \u201c0 Rate Cuts in 2026\u201d Odds Slip to 77.35%<\/h2>\n<p>Bank of America raised its global growth outlook and said it expects the Federal Reserve to deliver a cumulative 75 basis points of rate hikes even as inflation eases. On Polymarket\u2019s \u201cHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?\u201d ladder, the market still prices no cuts as the dominant outcome, though the implied odds have slipped to 77.35%.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket prices 0 Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 77.35% (Yes) versus 22.65% (No).<\/li>\n<li>The contract repriced lower as a bank forecast argued for higher-for-longer policy, including 75 bps of Fed hikes despite easing inflation.<\/li>\n<li>The market resolves on 2026-12-31, and the leading outcome is down from 82.10% to 77.35%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bank of America raised its outlook for global growth and maintained a view that the Federal Reserve could still tighten policy despite signs that inflation is easing. The bank forecast a cumulative 75 basis points of Fed rate hikes, pointing to resilience that could keep policy restrictive. The call contrasts with expectations in some corners of the market that easing inflation would pave the way for rate cuts. The updated outlook underscores how sticky growth and policy uncertainty can keep the path of interest rates contested. The bank\u2019s view highlights a scenario in which cuts are deferred as policymakers remain focused on keeping inflation pressures contained.<\/p>\n<h2>Polymarket Fed Cuts Ladder: $39.47M Volume as \u201c0 Cuts\u201d Leads (77.35%) Ahead of \u201c1 Cut\u201d (12.50%) and \u201c2 Cuts\u201d (4.25%)<\/h2>\n<p>Polymarket\u2019s ladder shows the \u201c0 (0 bps)\u201d strike at 77.35% Yes and 22.65% No, keeping \u201cno cuts\u201d firmly in front even after a pullback from 82.10% previously. The next rungs are priced far lower: \u201c1 (25 bps)\u201d sits at 12.50% Yes versus 87.50% No, and \u201c2 (50 bps)\u201d at 4.25% Yes versus 95.75% No. Longer-shot tails are nearly written off, with \u201c3 (75 bps)\u201d at 0.95% Yes\/99.05% No and \u201c4 (100 bps)\u201d at 0.45% Yes\/99.55% No. Total matched volume stands at $39,466,206, indicating heavy positioning concentrated around the no-cuts baseline into the 2026-12-31 resolution.<\/p>\n<p>Watch whether the ladder\u2019s \u201c1 (25 bps)\u201d and \u201c2 (50 bps)\u201d strikes gain share from the \u201c0 (0 bps)\u201d line, and whether volume accelerates as traders express more convex views on the number of cuts into the 2026-12-31 resolution.<\/p>\n<h2>Macro Watchlist: Other High-Volume Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Tracking Beyond Fed Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond the rate-cut ladder, traders are also clustering in adjacent macro timing bets on Polymarket, including 81.5% on \u201cFed Decision in July?\u201d for \u201cNo change\u201d as $22,400,504 in volume concentrates around the near-term policy path. The mix of long-dated and meeting-by-meeting positioning underscores how participants are hedging both the destination and the cadence of the next move, while keeping an eye on fast-moving geopolitical and cross-asset contracts that can quickly reshape the macro narrative.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>+2.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>+2.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Implied odds (last 48h)0255075Odds %0 (0 bps)1 (25 bps)2 (50 bps)3 (75 bps)<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026\">How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$39,466,206<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>0 (0 bps)<\/td>\n<td>77.3%<\/td>\n<td>22.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1 (25 bps)<\/td>\n<td>12.5%<\/td>\n<td>87.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2 (50 bps)<\/td>\n<td>4.2%<\/td>\n<td>95.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3 (75 bps)<\/td>\n<td>0.9%<\/td>\n<td>99.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+9 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bank of America Sees 75 bps Fed Hikes; Polymarket \u201c0 Rate Cuts in 2026\u201d Odds Slip to 77.35% Bank of America raised its global growth outlook and said it expects the Federal Reserve to deliver a cumulative 75 basis points of rate hikes even as inflation eases. On Polymarket\u2019s \u201cHow many Fed rate cuts in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":621152,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[59,4748,25445,25,2322,2323],"class_list":{"0":"post-621151","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-federal-reserve","9":"tag-interest-rates","10":"tag-macrofed-prediction-markets","11":"tag-news","12":"tag-polymarket","13":"tag-prediction-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/621151","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=621151"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/621151\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/621152"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=621151"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=621151"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=621151"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}