{"id":620851,"date":"2026-06-27T22:20:47","date_gmt":"2026-06-27T22:20:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/trump-taps-schroyer-for-ice-as-polymarket-odds-favor-zero-fed-cuts-in-2026-0hnmkj5ltdeo0"},"modified":"2026-06-27T22:20:47","modified_gmt":"2026-06-27T22:20:47","slug":"trump-taps-schroyer-for-ice-as-polymarket-odds-favor-zero-fed-cuts-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/27\/trump-taps-schroyer-for-ice-as-polymarket-odds-favor-zero-fed-cuts-in-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump taps Schroyer for ICE as Polymarket odds favor zero Fed cuts in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/Stock%20trading%20concept%20with%20woman%20using%20her%20laptop.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Trump Taps Lance Schroyer for ICE Director as Polymarket Keeps \u201c0 Fed Rate Cuts in 2026\u201d the Top Bet Despite Odds Dip<\/h2>\n<p>President Donald Trump said he will nominate former Oklahoma state trooper Lance Schroyer as the next director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, a personnel move that underscores continued focus on enforcement policy. Polymarket traders also priced in a higher likelihood of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, with the leading rung still dominant despite a pullback in recent odds.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket\u2019s leading outcome is 0 Fed rate cuts in 2026 at 77.25% (Yes), versus 22.75% (No).<\/li>\n<li>The contract repriced lower from 82.10% to 77.25% on the leading rung, even as most other cut-count rungs remain heavily discounted.<\/li>\n<li>The market resolves on 2026-12-31, and the leading rung is up 2.25 percentage points over both the past 24 hours and 7 days.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>President Donald Trump said he will nominate Lance Schroyer, a former Oklahoma state trooper, to serve as director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Trump described Schroyer as a former U.S. Marine with operational experience, and the Department of Homeland Security secretary, Markwayne Mullin, praised Schroyer\u2019s 29-year career and work with federal and state partners. The nomination comes as ICE expands after a one-time $75 billion injection last year that funded the hiring of 12,000 officers and increased detention capacity, while enforcement raids have drawn protests and clashes with law enforcement. Schroyer would replace Todd Lyons, who resigned at the end of May, as David Venturella continues as acting head while the White House did not say whether Schroyer would begin immediately in an acting capacity. ICE has not had a Senate-confirmed director since the Obama administration amid polarized politics over the agency and immigration policy.<\/p>\n<h2>Polymarket \u201cFed Rate Cuts 2026\u201d Ladder: 0 Cuts at 77.25% Yes on $39.25M Volume, with 1 Cut at 12.50% and 2 Cuts at 4.25%<\/h2>\n<p>On Polymarket\u2019s ladder market \u201cHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?\u201d, the leading rung \u201c0 (0 bps)\u201d traded at 77.25% Yes versus 22.75% No, down from 82.10% previously. The next rungs show sharply lower probabilities: \u201c1 (25 bps)\u201d priced 12.50% Yes \/ 87.50% No and \u201c2 (50 bps)\u201d priced 4.25% Yes \/ 95.75% No. Farther out, \u201c3 (75 bps)\u201d was 0.95% Yes \/ 99.05% No, while \u201c4 (100 bps)\u201d was 0.35% Yes \/ 99.65% No, highlighting how concentrated positioning remains around the no-cuts scenario. Cumulative volume stood at $39,253,709, suggesting deep liquidity even as traders adjusted the top rung lower.<\/p>\n<p>Attention will stay on how Polymarket pricing distributes across the 0-, 1-, and 2-cut rungs as liquidity moves ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond Fed Cuts: Other High-Volume U.S. Politics and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond longer-dated rate paths, Polymarket activity is also clustering around nearer-term catalysts and other high-volume themes across the platform. In \u201cFed Decision in July?\u201d, traders are pricing an 80.5% chance of \u201cNo change\u201d on $22,095,002 in volume, after a 9.0 percentage-point move. Elsewhere, niche markets can still draw attention, including \u201cITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Ayla Aksu,\u201d where the listed leading outcome sits at 100.0% on $140,855 traded.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>+2.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>+2.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Implied odds (last 48h)0255075Odds %0 (0 bps)1 (25 bps)2 (50 bps)3 (75 bps)<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026\">How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$39,253,709<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>0 (0 bps)<\/td>\n<td>77.2%<\/td>\n<td>22.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1 (25 bps)<\/td>\n<td>12.5%<\/td>\n<td>87.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2 (50 bps)<\/td>\n<td>4.2%<\/td>\n<td>95.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3 (75 bps)<\/td>\n<td>0.9%<\/td>\n<td>99.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+9 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump Taps Lance Schroyer for ICE Director as Polymarket Keeps \u201c0 Fed Rate Cuts in 2026\u201d the Top Bet Despite Odds Dip President Donald Trump said he will nominate former Oklahoma state trooper Lance Schroyer as the next director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, a personnel move that underscores continued focus on enforcement policy. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":620852,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[59,4748,21933,25445,25,2323],"class_list":{"0":"post-620851","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-federal-reserve","9":"tag-interest-rates","10":"tag-macro-economy","11":"tag-macrofed-prediction-markets","12":"tag-news","13":"tag-prediction-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/620851","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=620851"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/620851\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/620852"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=620851"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=620851"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=620851"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}