{"id":619941,"date":"2026-06-26T04:13:27","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T04:13:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/judge-orders-musk-deposition-as-polymarket-keeps-vance-atop-2028-at-1965-0hnmj7532vn00"},"modified":"2026-06-26T04:13:27","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T04:13:27","slug":"judge-orders-musk-deposition-as-polymarket-keeps-vance-atop-2028-at-19-65","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/26\/judge-orders-musk-deposition-as-polymarket-keeps-vance-atop-2028-at-19-65\/","title":{"rendered":"Judge orders Musk deposition as Polymarket keeps Vance atop 2028 at 19.65%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/7D7F77385C3A635A894DA7D3BF2FBFAEEBE67781CD33BAB9E80D67BD1B129DFC.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Musk Deposition Order Fuels Election \u201cVote Buying\u201d Case as Polymarket Keeps JD Vance Leading 2028 Odds<\/h2>\n<p>A judge ordered Elon Musk to sit for a deposition in a case alleging an election-related \u201cvote buying\u201d scheme, a legal development that injected fresh uncertainty into political influence narratives. On Polymarket\u2019s \u201cPresidential Election Winner 2028\u201d market, traders kept JD Vance as the top-priced outcome while the long-tail field, including Donald Trump, remained far behind.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket prices JD Vance as the leading 2028 winner at 19.65% (No 80.35%) on the \u201cPresidential Election Winner 2028\u201d market.<\/li>\n<li>After the Musk deposition order headline, pricing remained fragmented across candidates, with no single outcome above 20% in the current board.<\/li>\n<li>The market resolves on Nov. 7, 2028, and has seen a 7-day move of -3.15 percentage points in the provided historical summary.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A judge ordered Elon Musk to give a deposition in a case that alleges an election-related \u201cvote buying\u201d scheme, according to the report\u2019s headline. The order compels Musk to provide sworn testimony as part of the litigation. The allegations described in the case center on improper election influence through inducements framed as vote buying. The deposition order signals the dispute is moving deeper into fact-finding and could broaden scrutiny of political activity connected to the claims. The report did not provide further details in the snippet about timing, jurisdictions, or specific remedies sought.<\/p>\n<h2>Polymarket 2028 Market Data: $639.6M Volume, Vance at 19.65% as No Candidate Breaks 20%<\/h2>\n<p>Polymarket\u2019s \u201cPresidential Election Winner 2028\u201d contract is trading with $639,644,786 in volume, led by JD Vance at 19.65% Yes versus 80.35% No. Next in the price stack are Gavin Newsom at 14.25% Yes \/ 85.75% No and Marco Rubio at 11.6% Yes \/ 88.4% No, showing a dispersed front-runner profile rather than a dominant favorite. Lower down, Donald Trump is priced at 1.65% Yes \/ 98.35% No, with Ron DeSantis at 1.55% Yes \/ 98.45% No, reflecting heavy market skepticism about those specific outcomes. The board implies traders are allocating probability across a wide field, with most candidates priced as low-likelihood winners despite the market\u2019s large notional activity.<\/p>\n<p>Watch whether follow-on legal milestones from the deposition order lead to sustained repricing across the top three outcomes (JD Vance, Gavin Newsom, Marco Rubio) or mainly shift the long-tail candidates\u2019 probabilities ahead of the Nov. 7, 2028 resolution date.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond the 2028 Race: Other High-Volume Politics and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n<p>Away from the 2028 winner tape, traders are also concentrating liquidity in a mix of foreign-policy and leadership-risk contracts. In \u201cRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028,\u201d Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads at 49.0% with $664,629,466 in volume, while U.K. turnover and stability are in focus in \u201cNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban),\u201d where Starmer &#8211; UK PM is priced at 89.5% on $4,546,648. Middle East-related event risk is being tracked in \u201cWho will enter Iran by June 30?\u201d with Any U.S. House member at 0.35% on $8,446,217, alongside \u201cWhat Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?\u201d where Troop Withdrawal sits at 100.0% on $12,813,521.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>-3.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>-3.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Implied odds (last 48h)25Odds %JD VanceGavin NewsomMarco RubioJon Ossoff<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/presidential-election-winner-2028\">Presidential Election Winner 2028<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Nov 07, 2028 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$639,644,786<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>JD Vance<\/td>\n<td>19.6%<\/td>\n<td>80.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Gavin Newsom<\/td>\n<td>14.2%<\/td>\n<td>85.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Marco Rubio<\/td>\n<td>11.6%<\/td>\n<td>88.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jon Ossoff<\/td>\n<td>6.0%<\/td>\n<td>94.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+33 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/presidential-election-winner-2028\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Musk Deposition Order Fuels Election \u201cVote Buying\u201d Case as Polymarket Keeps JD Vance Leading 2028 Odds A judge ordered Elon Musk to sit for a deposition in a case alleging an election-related \u201cvote buying\u201d scheme, a legal development that injected fresh uncertainty into political influence narratives. On Polymarket\u2019s \u201cPresidential Election Winner 2028\u201d market, traders kept [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":619942,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[910,25438,756,20396,25,2323],"class_list":{"0":"post-619941","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-donald-trump","9":"tag-donald-trump-prediction-markets","10":"tag-elon-musk","11":"tag-jd-vance","12":"tag-news","13":"tag-prediction-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619941","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=619941"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619941\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/619942"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=619941"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=619941"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=619941"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}