{"id":619693,"date":"2026-06-25T14:21:28","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T14:21:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/inflation-gauge-hits-3-year-high-as-polymarket-pegs-july-fed-hold-at-775-0hnmioht827c0"},"modified":"2026-06-25T14:21:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T14:21:28","slug":"inflation-gauge-hits-3-year-high-as-polymarket-pegs-july-fed-hold-at-77-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/25\/inflation-gauge-hits-3-year-high-as-polymarket-pegs-july-fed-hold-at-77-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation gauge hits 3-year high as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 77.5%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/0C987794A110DD96CC06B6C18D7A594A0AA284A08D6F9575FA1E49FA23AE3C37.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Fed Decision in July 2026: \u201cNo Change\u201d Odds Jump to 77.5% After Inflation Gauge Hits Three-Year High<\/h2>\n<p>A fresh three-year high in the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge has refocused attention on the path for U.S. interest rates. On Polymarket\u2019s \u201cFed Decision in July?\u201d ladder, traders have pushed the implied odds of \u201cNo change\u201d up to 77.5%.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket prices \u201cNo change\u201d after the July 2026 Fed meeting at 77.5% (Yes 77.5% \/ No 22.5%).<\/li>\n<li>Inflation data hitting a three-year high coincided with a repricing across the July decision ladder toward steady rates.<\/li>\n<li>The market resolves on July 29, 2026; \u201cNo change\u201d is up 6.0 percentage points versus the prior reading.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge rose to a fresh three-year high, underscoring renewed price pressures in the U.S. economy. The reading is closely watched by policymakers because it is often treated as a key signal for whether inflation is cooling or staying stubborn. The latest data point complicates the outlook for interest-rate policy by keeping attention on inflation\u2019s persistence. Investors have been monitoring the figures for clues on how quickly the Fed can shift away from restrictive settings. The report added to uncertainty over the timing and direction of the next policy move.<\/p>\n<h2>Polymarket Ladder Data: $18.84M Volume as \u201cNo Change\u201d Leads at 77.5% vs 21.45% for a 25 bps Hike<\/h2>\n<p>Polymarket\u2019s \u201cFed Decision in July?\u201d contract has about $18.84 million in matched volume, with pricing concentrated around a steady-policy outcome. The \u201cNo change\u201d rung trades at Yes 77.5% \/ No 22.5%, while a \u201c25 bps increase\u201d sits at Yes 21.45% \/ No 78.55%, implying a smaller but meaningful tail risk of a hike. Cuts are priced as low-probability outcomes, with \u201c25 bps decrease\u201d at Yes 1.35% \/ No 98.65% and \u201c50+ bps decrease\u201d at Yes 0.45% \/ No 99.55%. Larger moves in either direction are heavily discounted, including \u201c50+ bps increase\u201d at Yes 0.35% \/ No 99.65%.<\/p>\n<p>Traders will watch how the ladder probabilities shift into the July 29, 2026 resolution as liquidity concentrates around \u201cNo change\u201d versus the 25 bps hike line.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond the Fed: Other High-Volume Polymarket Macro Contracts Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond the July decision ladder, traders are also positioning in longer-horizon macro bets across the platform, led by 79.1% on \u201cHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?\u201d for the \u201c0 (0 bps)\u201d outcome, with $38,886,994 in matched volume. The contract\u2019s depth underscores how sentiment on the broader rate path is increasingly being expressed through year-ahead cut counts rather than single-meeting outcomes.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>-2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>-2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Implied odds (last 48h)0255075Odds %No change25 bps increase25 bps decrease50+ bps decrease<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/fed-decision-in-july-181\">Fed Decision in July?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Jul 29, 2026 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$18,841,887<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>No change<\/td>\n<td>77.5%<\/td>\n<td>22.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>25 bps increase<\/td>\n<td>21.4%<\/td>\n<td>78.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>25 bps decrease<\/td>\n<td>1.4%<\/td>\n<td>98.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>50+ bps decrease<\/td>\n<td>0.5%<\/td>\n<td>99.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+1 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/fed-decision-in-july-181\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed Decision in July 2026: \u201cNo Change\u201d Odds Jump to 77.5% After Inflation Gauge Hits Three-Year High A fresh three-year high in the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge has refocused attention on the path for U.S. interest rates. On Polymarket\u2019s \u201cFed Decision in July?\u201d ladder, traders have pushed the implied odds of \u201cNo change\u201d up [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":619694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[59,739,4748,25445,25,2323],"class_list":{"0":"post-619693","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-federal-reserve","9":"tag-inflation","10":"tag-interest-rates","11":"tag-macrofed-prediction-markets","12":"tag-news","13":"tag-prediction-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619693","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=619693"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619693\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/619694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=619693"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=619693"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=619693"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}