{"id":619656,"date":"2026-06-25T12:24:20","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T12:24:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/core-pce-jitters-hit-bitcoin-as-polymarket-pegs-anthropic-at-984-0hnmimf3kes00"},"modified":"2026-06-25T12:24:20","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T12:24:20","slug":"core-pce-jitters-hit-bitcoin-as-polymarket-pegs-anthropic-at-98-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/25\/core-pce-jitters-hit-bitcoin-as-polymarket-pegs-anthropic-at-98-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Core PCE jitters hit Bitcoin as Polymarket pegs Anthropic at 98.4%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/Robotic%20arm%20taking%20bitcoin%20against%20digital%20hud-min.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Polymarket\u2019s \u201cBest AI Model by End of June\u201d Contract: Anthropic Jumps to 98.4% as Macro Volatility Drives Risk Hedging<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin derivatives markets were flashing signs of investor panic ahead of a key U.S. inflation release, with traders paying up for downside protection and watching whether the core PCE reading could flip sentiment. On Polymarket, the contract \u201cWhich company has best AI model end of June?\u201d was priced even more decisively toward Anthropic, with its implied odds rising to 98.4%.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket priced Anthropic as the favorite at 98.4% (No 1.6%) in \u201cWhich company has best AI model end of June?\u201d<\/li>\n<li>The market\u2019s leading outcome strengthened as macro risk headlines kept traders focused on positioning and volatility across AI-linked and crypto-linked assets.<\/li>\n<li>The contract is set to resolve on June 30, 2026; Anthropic\u2019s implied odds were up 2.2 percentage points from 96.2%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bitcoin derivatives markets were signaling stress ahead of Thursday\u2019s U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report, with investors paying an unusually large premium for protection against declines. The report said bitcoin\u2019s one-week options skew showed a near 25-point premium for puts over calls, a sign that traders were leaning heavily toward downside bets. Core PCE is due at 8:30 a.m. ET and is expected to show a 3.4% year-on-year rise for May, up from 3.3% in April and the highest since late 2023, according to FactSet. The piece said a softer-than-expected print could weaken the case for further Federal Reserve rate increases and trigger a snap adjustment in sentiment. Bitcoin had rebounded to about $61,500 after touching a 20-month low near $59,000, with the article also noting WTI crude had fallen to around $70 from above $100 during the Iran war in March and April.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds and Volume Breakdown: $21.6M Traded as Anthropic Holds 98.4% vs Google 0.55% and OpenAI 0.45%<\/h2>\n<p>Polymarket\u2019s \u201cWhich company has best AI model end of June?\u201d contract showed a highly one-sided book, with $21,617,086 in volume and Anthropic priced at 98.4% Yes versus 1.6% No. The next closest outcomes were priced near zero: Google at 0.55% Yes \/ 99.45% No and OpenAI at 0.45% Yes \/ 99.55% No. A long tail of other names (including xAI, Amazon, Microsoft, Mistral, DeepSeek, ByteDance, Alibaba, Moonshot, and Z.ai) sat at 0.05% Yes \/ 99.95% No. The pricing implies traders see little competitive uncertainty at current levels, with most liquidity concentrated in the Anthropic outcome.<\/p>\n<p>The market is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2026; traders will watch whether any of the trailing outcomes gain meaningful share from their sub-1% pricing as volume builds.<\/p>\n<h2>Macro Watchlist on Polymarket: Bitcoin Options Skew and U.S. Core PCE Inflation Expectations in Focus<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond the AI-model leaderboard, traders are also rotating into a broader slate of active Polymarket contracts that span tech and event-driven risk. \u201cWhich company has best AI model end of July?\u201d implies 86.0% odds for Anthropic on $1,705,710 in volume, while the \u201cUruguay vs. Spain\u201d market prices Spain at 65.5% with $1,207,424 traded\u2014underscoring how quickly liquidity can migrate across themes as sentiment shifts.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>+2.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>+2.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Implied odds (last 48h)0255075100Odds %AnthropicGoogleOpenAIZ.ai<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june\">Which company has best AI model end of June?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Jun 30, 2026 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$21,617,086<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Anthropic<\/td>\n<td>98.4%<\/td>\n<td>1.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Google<\/td>\n<td>0.6%<\/td>\n<td>99.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>OpenAI<\/td>\n<td>0.5%<\/td>\n<td>99.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Z.ai<\/td>\n<td>0.1%<\/td>\n<td>100.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+11 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Polymarket\u2019s \u201cBest AI Model by End of June\u201d Contract: Anthropic Jumps to 98.4% as Macro Volatility Drives Risk Hedging Bitcoin derivatives markets were flashing signs of investor panic ahead of a key U.S. inflation release, with traders paying up for downside protection and watching whether the core PCE reading could flip sentiment. On Polymarket, the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":619657,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,12],"tags":[25409,851,31,25,2322,2323],"class_list":{"0":"post-619656","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bitcoin","8":"category-blockchain","9":"tag-aitech-prediction-markets","10":"tag-artificial-intelligence","11":"tag-bitcoin","12":"tag-news","13":"tag-polymarket","14":"tag-prediction-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619656","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=619656"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619656\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/619657"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=619656"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=619656"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=619656"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}