{"id":619654,"date":"2026-06-25T12:30:20","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T12:30:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/us-says-hormuz-flows-near-normal-polymarket-july-15-return-odds-jump-to-425-0hnmimfbjtnc0"},"modified":"2026-06-25T12:30:20","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T12:30:20","slug":"us-says-hormuz-flows-near-normal-polymarket-july-15-return-odds-jump-to-42-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/25\/us-says-hormuz-flows-near-normal-polymarket-july-15-return-odds-jump-to-42-5\/","title":{"rendered":"US says Hormuz flows near normal; Polymarket July 15 return odds jump to 42.5%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/Federal%20Reserve%20building%20in%20Washington%2C%20DC.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Oil Slides to Pre-War Levels as U.S. Says Hormuz Flows Near Normal, Pushing \u201cTraffic Returns by July 15\u201d Odds to 42.5%<\/h2>\n<p>Oil prices fell back to pre-war levels on June 25 after the United States said flows through the Strait of Hormuz were nearing normal. The shift in conditions helped lift Polymarket\u2019s odds for \u201cStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?\u201d to 42.5% from 25.0%.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket prices a 42.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15, versus 57.5% for No.<\/li>\n<li>The contract repriced higher after U.S. officials said Hormuz shipments were approaching pre-strike levels and crude slid to pre-war levels.<\/li>\n<li>The market resolves on 2026-07-15, with Yes odds up 17.5 percentage points from the prior 25.0% snapshot.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Oil prices fell to pre-war levels on June 25 after the United States said flows through the Strait of Hormuz were nearing normal and a senior U.S. diplomat wrapped a Gulf tour tied to support for a preliminary Iran deal. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on June 24 that shipments through the strait were approaching levels seen before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, with at least 20 million barrels exiting the strait in the prior 24 hours. Iran signaled it would keep asserting control, with the Revolutionary Guards on June 25 warning vessels to stick to routes designated by Tehran and rejecting newly announced routes not coordinated with Iran. The warning followed Oman\u2019s announcement of temporary shipping lanes through the strait coordinated with the U.N. shipping agency. Data from the International Maritime Organization showed 57 ships carrying about 1,100 seafarers transited the strait since June 23 under an evacuation plan.<\/p>\n<h2>Polymarket Data: Yes Jumps +17.5 Points to 42.5% on $3.38M Volume While No Leads at 57.5%<\/h2>\n<p>On Polymarket, the binary contract was last priced at Yes 42.5% and No 57.5%, with No still the leading outcome. Yes odds have risen 17.5 percentage points from 25.0% previously, alongside total volume of $3,384,192. The pricing implies traders see a meaningful rebound scenario but still lean toward traffic not being \u201cnormal\u201d by the July 15, 2026 resolution date.<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket positioning may swing with new read-throughs from tanker transit activity and any further headline-driven shifts in risk appetite ahead of the July 15 resolution.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond Hormuz Shipping: Other High-Interest Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond the July 15 horizon, traders are also clustering into shorter-dated Hormuz and Iran risk gauges that can reprice quickly on headlines and shipping data. Polymarket shows 90.4% for \u201cStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?\u201d on $35,150,583 in volume, alongside 59.5% for \u201cStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?\u201d with $9,043,471 traded. On the diplomacy track, \u201cUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by\u2026?\u201d has \u201cAugust 31\u201d leading at 23.5% ($1,944,292), while political tail-risk remains heavily discounted with \u201cWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?\u201d at 99.75% for No on $64,151,462 in volume.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>-2.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>-2.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Implied odds (last 48h)2550Odds %Strait of Hormuz traffic re\u2026<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-15\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil Slides to Pre-War Levels as U.S. Says Hormuz Flows Near Normal, Pushing \u201cTraffic Returns by July 15\u201d Odds to 42.5% Oil prices fell back to pre-war levels on June 25 after the United States said flows through the Strait of Hormuz were nearing normal. The shift in conditions helped lift Polymarket\u2019s odds for \u201cStrait [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":619655,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[25728,25643,25,24283,2323,25763],"class_list":{"0":"post-619654","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-iran-gulf","9":"tag-irangulf-prediction-markets","10":"tag-news","11":"tag-oil-prices","12":"tag-prediction-markets","13":"tag-strait-hormuz"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619654","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=619654"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619654\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/619655"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=619654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=619654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=619654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}