{"id":619606,"date":"2026-06-25T09:12:07","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T09:12:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/20260625-price-prediction-ton-longs-are-paying-premium-on-a"},"modified":"2026-06-25T09:12:07","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T09:12:07","slug":"ton-price-prediction-longs-are-paying-premium-on-a-coin-that-cant-find-a-bid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/25\/ton-price-prediction-longs-are-paying-premium-on-a-coin-that-cant-find-a-bid\/","title":{"rendered":"TON Price Prediction: Longs Are Paying Premium on a Coin That Can’t Find a Bid"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Darius Baruo<\/a> Jun 25, 2026 09:12<\/span> <\/p>\n

TON is trading at $1.59 with every short-term moving average stacked above price and futures longs stubbornly paying a 0.35% funding premium into a vacuum of spot conviction \u2014 this divergence resol…<\/p>\n

\"TON <\/a> <\/figure>\n

TON’s Technical Reality Check<\/h2>\n

Every moving average above current price. That’s the entire story for TON right now, and it’s not a flattering one. The 7-day, 20-day, and 50-day SMAs are sitting at $1.62, $1.66, and $1.88 respectively \u2014 a cascading ceiling of overhead supply that has to be dismantled before any recovery can be called real. The SMA 50 at $1.88 is 18% above where TON is trading today, which tells you exactly how badly this token has underperformed even its own medium-term trend.<\/p>\n

The MACD is what grabs my attention most. The histogram has zeroed out \u2014 bearish momentum that dragged price down has fully exhausted itself, but there’s zero follow-through buying to show for it. Buyers aren’t stepping in; they’re watching. The RSI at 42 corroborates this: neither oversold panic nor any semblance of bullish control, just directionless hesitation in the mid-neutral zone. This is not a healthy accumulation base \u2014 it’s a coil that snaps when it’s ready, not when traders want it to.<\/p>\n

The Bollinger Band setup is the most interesting technical element right now. At a %B of 0.14, TON is scraping the lower band at $1.56, statistically compressed and primed for a volatility expansion. As Blockchain.news<\/a> has documented across similar altcoin setups, lower-band compressions of this magnitude don’t resolve sideways \u2014 they resolve with conviction in one direction. The upper band at $1.77 is the bull target; everything below $1.56 is the bear’s invitation. The stochastic adds a nuance: %K at 24 is flirting with a crossover above %D at 19, which could ignite a short-term relief bounce \u2014 but in a bearish moving average structure, “oversold” is a condition, not a catalyst.<\/p>\n

Volume & Price Alignment<\/h2>\n

$6.47 million in 24-hour Binance spot volume. On a token that once moved billions daily, that number is almost insulting. The 24-hour range of $1.52 to $1.64 confirms the thesis: TON is drifting, not trading. There’s no institutional conviction on either side of this tape.<\/p>\n

But here’s the dangerous disconnect that traders need to understand clearly. While spot volume is anemic and price can’t even close above its EMA 12 at $1.64, the futures market is carrying a funding rate of +0.3538%. That means leveraged longs are paying shorts a meaningful premium to hold exposure \u2014 speculative money is betting on a bounce that spot markets are refusing to confirm. Blockchain.news<\/a> has consistently flagged this kind of funding-spot divergence as one of the cleaner setup signals in crypto derivatives, and historically it resolves in one of two ways: either spot price catches up to futures optimism, or spot drags futures down and those leveraged longs get squeezed out on a cascade.<\/p>\n

Given that TON is sitting right at its pivot point of $1.58 with no volume support behind it, the squeeze scenario carries higher probability. If $1.53 breaks on any meaningful volume, the unwind of those funded longs accelerates the downside move mechanically, regardless of any fundamental view on the asset.<\/p>\n