{"id":619541,"date":"2026-06-25T08:20:38","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T08:20:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/deribits-10b-btc-options-expiry-lifts-polymarket-54k-odds-to-9985-0hnmii81iqg00"},"modified":"2026-06-25T08:20:38","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T08:20:38","slug":"deribits-10b-btc-options-expiry-lifts-polymarket-54k-odds-to-99-85","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/25\/deribits-10b-btc-options-expiry-lifts-polymarket-54k-odds-to-99-85\/","title":{"rendered":"Deribit\u2019s $10B BTC options expiry lifts Polymarket 54K odds to 99.85%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/shutterstock_687394963-min.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Bitcoin Near $61,700 Ahead of $10B Deribit Options Expiry as Polymarket Ladder Shifts to Lower Strikes<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin was trading around $61,700 ahead of a $10 billion quarterly options expiry on Deribit, a major liquidity event that traders often watch for volatility. On Polymarket\u2019s \u201cBitcoin above ___ on June 26?\u201d ladder, pricing tilted further toward lower strikes as the settlement date nears.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket implies a 99.85% chance Bitcoin is above $54,000 on June 26.<\/li>\n<li>Traders are pricing a wide gap between low and high strikes into the June 26 ladder as spot remains far below the $72,000 \u201cmax pain\u201d level cited for options expiry.<\/li>\n<li>The market resolves at 2026-06-26T16:00:00+00:00, with the leading strike priced near certainty into that window.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bitcoin traded well below the $72,000 level that \u201cmax pain\u201d theory suggests could act as an options-expiry magnet, as markets headed into a roughly $10 billion quarterly options settlement. The article said bitcoin fell from about $67,000 to below $60,000 ahead of the expiry, undercutting expectations that prices would gravitate toward max pain. It put the max pain level for Friday\u2019s expiry around $72,000, far above spot prices near $61,700 at the time cited. Options worth about $10 billion were set to expire on Deribit at 8:00 ET, concentrating attention on positioning and potential hedging flows. While recent expiries have not shown a consistent \u201cpinning\u201d effect, the piece described the June expiry as a major liquidity event that can still spur volatility as contracts expire or roll into later dates.<\/p>\n<h2>Polymarket \u201cBitcoin Above ___ on June 26?\u201d Sees $618,950 Volume as Odds Range From 99.85% (Above $54K) to 48.5% (Above $<\/h2>\n<p>Polymarket showed $618,950 in matched volume on the \u201cBitcoin above ___ on June 26?\u201d ladder, with the most confident pricing clustered at the lower strikes. The $54,000 line traded at 99.85% Yes versus 0.15% No, while $56,000 was 99.15% Yes and 0.85% No and $58,000 was 97.45% Yes and 2.55% No, signaling traders see a high probability of staying above those thresholds at resolution. Confidence drops sharply at higher levels: $62,000 was near a coin flip at 48.5% Yes and 51.5% No, and $66,000 was priced at 1.35% Yes versus 98.65% No. At the far end, $68,000 and $70,000 were both marked 0.05% Yes and 99.95% No, indicating little appetite for upside beyond the mid-$60,000s by June 26.<\/p>\n<p>Attention will center on the June 26 resolution window and whether pricing migrates toward the $60,000\u2013$62,000 strikes, where the ladder shows the steepest shift in implied odds.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond Bitcoin: Other High-Volume Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching Right Now<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond the near-dated strike ladder, Polymarket traders are also crowding into broader month-end and longer-horizon crypto ranges, led by \u201cWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?\u201d with $44,475,159 in volume and \u201cWhat price will Bitcoin hit in June?\u201d with $26,734,560, both currently pricing the leading outcome at 100.0%. Activity extends across majors as well, with \u201cWhat price will Ethereum hit in June?\u201d showing $6,286,777 in volume at 100.0% for its top line, while \u201cWhat price will Solana hit in June?\u201d has drawn $2,329,927 with its leading outcome also marked 100.0%. Taken together, the flow underscores how participants are using Polymarket to express not just point-in-time calls but range-bound views across multiple tokens and timeframes.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<p> Implied odds (last 48h)5075100Odds %54,00056,00058,00060,000<\/p>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/bitcoin-above-on-june-26-2026\">Bitcoin above ___ on June 26?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Jun 26, 2026 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$618,950<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>54,000<\/td>\n<td>99.8%<\/td>\n<td>0.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>56,000<\/td>\n<td>99.2%<\/td>\n<td>0.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>58,000<\/td>\n<td>97.5%<\/td>\n<td>2.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>60,000<\/td>\n<td>88.5%<\/td>\n<td>11.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+7 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/bitcoin-above-on-june-26-2026\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin Near $61,700 Ahead of $10B Deribit Options Expiry as Polymarket Ladder Shifts to Lower Strikes Bitcoin was trading around $61,700 ahead of a $10 billion quarterly options expiry on Deribit, a major liquidity event that traders often watch for volatility. On Polymarket\u2019s \u201cBitcoin above ___ on June 26?\u201d ladder, pricing tilted further toward lower [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":619542,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[1450,5789,25411,25,2322,2323],"class_list":{"0":"post-619541","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-bitcoin-options","9":"tag-crypto-markets","10":"tag-crypto-prediction-markets","11":"tag-news","12":"tag-polymarket","13":"tag-prediction-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619541","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=619541"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/619541\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/619542"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=619541"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=619541"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=619541"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}