{"id":618357,"date":"2026-06-22T16:03:03","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T16:03:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/screwworm-risk-and-usmca-july-1-clock-keep-polymarket-at-80-for-zero-fed-cuts-0hnmgeutudq40"},"modified":"2026-06-22T16:03:03","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T16:03:03","slug":"screwworm-risk-and-usmca-july-1-clock-keep-polymarket-at-80-for-zero-fed-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/22\/screwworm-risk-and-usmca-july-1-clock-keep-polymarket-at-80-for-zero-fed-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"Screwworm risk and USMCA July 1 clock keep Polymarket at 80% for zero Fed cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/Electronic%20virtual%20platform%20showing%20trends%20and%20stock%20market%20fluctuations-min.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Fed Rate Cuts in 2026: \u201c0 (0 bps)\u201d Still Leads as Beef Prices and USMCA Renewal Risks Nudge Odds Lower<\/h2>\n<p>Ground beef prices and North American trade uncertainty are back in focus after reports of a screwworm outbreak spreading from Mexico into the United States and a looming July 1 deadline for decisions on extending a major regional trade pact. On Polymarket, the \u201cHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?\u201d ladder continued to price in a low-cut path, with \u201c0 (0 bps)\u201d the dominant outcome at 80.25%.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket prices the leading outcome \u201c0 (0 bps)\u201d at 80.25% in the \u201cHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?\u201d ladder.<\/li>\n<li>Traders nudged pricing lower from 82.10% to 80.25% as inflation-sensitive headlines highlighted beef supply strains and potential trade disruption risk.<\/li>\n<li>The market resolves on 2026-12-31, with the ladder mapping probabilities to specific 2026 cut counts at settlement.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ground beef prices have risen by more than 20% since January 2025, according to a report that pointed to tightening cattle supplies and fresh pressure from animal health and weather shocks. The piece said a screwworm outbreak that hit cattle in Mexico has spread to the United States, while the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to levels not seen since the 1950s, in part due to drought. It also highlighted potential trade disruption ahead of a July 1, 2026 decision point tied to the United States\u2013Mexico\u2013Canada Agreement, which must be jointly reviewed every six years and includes a 16-year sunset clause. The report said President Donald Trump warned that Washington may not renew the agreement and could withdraw, as U.S. and Mexican negotiators met June 16-17 to discuss the pact. The authors argued the beef sector is especially exposed because the U.S. is both a major agricultural importer and exporter, and integrated cross-border flows help shape supply and pricing.<\/p>\n<h2>Polymarket Data: $37.52M Volume Puts \u201c0 (0 bps)\u201d at 80.25% vs 13.50% for One 25 bps Cut<\/h2>\n<p>On Polymarket, the ladder is heavily skewed toward no easing in 2026, with \u201c0 (0 bps)\u201d at 80.25% Yes versus 19.75% No on $37.52 million in volume. The next rung, \u201c1 (25 bps),\u201d is priced at 13.50% Yes and 86.50% No, while \u201c2 (50 bps)\u201d sits at 3.05% Yes and 96.95% No. Longer-tail outcomes are near-zero: \u201c3 (75 bps)\u201d is 0.95% Yes \/ 99.05% No and \u201c4 (100 bps)\u201d is 0.65% Yes \/ 99.35% No, signaling limited appetite for aggressive-cut scenarios into the 2026-12-31 resolution.<\/p>\n<p>Any further repricing will likely show up first in the spread between the \u201c0 (0 bps)\u201d and \u201c1 (25 bps)\u201d rungs as liquidity concentrates ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond the Fed: Other High-Volume Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching on Food Inflation and North American Trade<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond the 2026 cuts ladder, traders are also clustering in shorter-dated macro signals and tail-risk policy bets. In \u201cFed Decision in July?\u201d, the \u201cNo change\u201d outcome stands at 74.5% on $15.97 million in volume, while \u201cFed rate hike in 2026?\u201d has \u201cYes\u201d priced at 57.5% on $2.75 million, underscoring how closely participants are tracking both near-term holds and the possibility that inflation dynamics could force policy back in the other direction.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>+2.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>+2.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026\">How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$37,521,456<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>0 (0 bps)<\/td>\n<td>80.2%<\/td>\n<td>19.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1 (25 bps)<\/td>\n<td>13.5%<\/td>\n<td>86.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2 (50 bps)<\/td>\n<td>3.0%<\/td>\n<td>97.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3 (75 bps)<\/td>\n<td>0.9%<\/td>\n<td>99.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+9 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed Rate Cuts in 2026: \u201c0 (0 bps)\u201d Still Leads as Beef Prices and USMCA Renewal Risks Nudge Odds Lower Ground beef prices and North American trade uncertainty are back in focus after reports of a screwworm outbreak spreading from Mexico into the United States and a looming July 1 deadline for decisions on extending [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":618358,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[59,25445,5908,25,2323,25747],"class_list":{"0":"post-618357","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-federal-reserve","9":"tag-macrofed-prediction-markets","10":"tag-monetary-policy","11":"tag-news","12":"tag-prediction-markets","13":"tag-trade-uncertainty"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/618357","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=618357"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/618357\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/618358"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=618357"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=618357"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=618357"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}