{"id":616417,"date":"2026-06-18T16:03:44","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T16:03:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/makerfield-by-election-heats-up-as-polymarket-holds-bardella-at-255-0hnmdaclfi5k0"},"modified":"2026-06-18T16:03:44","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T16:03:44","slug":"makerfield-by-election-heats-up-as-polymarket-holds-bardella-at-25-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/18\/makerfield-by-election-heats-up-as-polymarket-holds-bardella-at-25-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Makerfield by-election heats up as Polymarket holds Bardella at 25.5%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/exchange_bitcoin_finance_market.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>UK Makerfield By-Election Heats Up, but Polymarket Keeps Jordan Bardella Leading France 2027 at 25.5%<\/h2>\n<p>Campaigning intensified ahead of the Makerfield by-election in the UK, a contest framed as a potential trigger for a Labour leadership challenge. On Polymarket\u2019s \u201cNext French Presidential Election\u201d market, pricing was unchanged, with Jordan Bardella still the top-listed outcome at 25.5%.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket prices Jordan Bardella as the leading winner of the 2027 French presidential election at 25.5%.<\/li>\n<li>The odds were flat at 25.5% even as UK political headlines focused on the Makerfield by-election and potential leadership dynamics.<\/li>\n<li>The market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-04-30, with the leading price up 2.0 points over the past 24 hours.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Candidates made their final appeal to voters ahead of Thursday\u2019s Makerfield by-election, a race portrayed as carrying wider consequences for the UK\u2019s political leadership. Labour\u2019s candidate, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, is expected to mount a challenge to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if he returns to Parliament by winning the seat. Reform UK\u2019s Robert Kenyon, a plumber and local councillor, was second in the constituency at the 2024 general election, and the limited polling conducted so far has suggested Burnham leading but with a tight contest. The campaign has drawn national attention, with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage canvassing locally as the four-week race reaches its final stages. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of the previous MP, and a wider field including a new party, Restore Britain, is also contesting the seat alongside the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats.<\/p>\n<h2>Polymarket Data: $102,059,382 Volume as Bardella Holds 25.5%, Philippe 19.5%, M\u00e9lenchon 9.5%, Le Pen 7.5%<\/h2>\n<p>On Polymarket, the \u201cNext French Presidential Election\u201d contract traded with $102,059,382 in volume and showed no change in the leader\u2019s price, leaving Jordan Bardella at 25.5% Yes \/ 74.5% No. \u00c9douard Philippe was priced at 19.5% Yes \/ 80.5% No, while Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon stood at 9.5% Yes \/ 90.5% No and Marine Le Pen at 7.5% Yes \/ 92.5% No. The rest of the listed field was priced in low single digits, including Dominique de Villepin at 3.7% Yes \/ 96.3% No and Gabriel Attal at 3.25% Yes \/ 96.75% No, indicating a relatively dispersed but leader-led book.<\/p>\n<p>Traders will watch for new France-specific political signals that could re-rank the top contenders ahead of the market\u2019s 2027-04-30 resolution date.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond France 2027: Other High-Interest UK Political Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching Now<\/h2>\n<p>Elsewhere on Polymarket, traders are also rotating into a slate of high-liquidity political contracts that span the US and Latin America. The Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 market shows Gavin Newsom leading at 24.25% on $1,203,183,466 in volume, while Brazil Presidential Election has Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva at 49.5% with $101,485,732 traded. In more lopsided pricing, Colombia Presidential Election has Abelardo de la Espriella at 89.5% on $37,610,934, and the UK-specific Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? is priced at 99.45% for \u201cNo\u201d with $5,236,876 in volume.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>+2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>+2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/next-french-presidential-election\">Next French Presidential Election<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Apr 30, 2027 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$102,059,382<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Jordan Bardella<\/td>\n<td>25.5%<\/td>\n<td>74.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00c9douard Philippe<\/td>\n<td>19.5%<\/td>\n<td>80.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon<\/td>\n<td>9.5%<\/td>\n<td>90.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Marine Le Pen<\/td>\n<td>7.5%<\/td>\n<td>92.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+32 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/next-french-presidential-election\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>UK Makerfield By-Election Heats Up, but Polymarket Keeps Jordan Bardella Leading France 2027 at 25.5% Campaigning intensified ahead of the Makerfield by-election in the UK, a contest framed as a potential trigger for a Labour leadership challenge. On Polymarket\u2019s \u201cNext French Presidential Election\u201d market, pricing was unchanged, with Jordan Bardella still the top-listed outcome at [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":616418,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[25,25410],"class_list":{"0":"post-616417","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-news","9":"tag-us-election-prediction-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/616417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=616417"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/616417\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/616418"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=616417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=616417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=616417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}