{"id":616085,"date":"2026-06-18T04:04:30","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T04:04:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/georgia-gop-runoff-shock-hits-polymarket-as-shepherd-win-odds-sink-to-055-0hnmctqotbb80"},"modified":"2026-06-18T04:04:30","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T04:04:30","slug":"georgia-gop-runoff-shock-hits-polymarket-as-shepherd-win-odds-sink-to-0-55","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/18\/georgia-gop-runoff-shock-hits-polymarket-as-shepherd-win-odds-sink-to-0-55\/","title":{"rendered":"Georgia GOP runoff shock hits Polymarket as Shepherd win odds sink to 0.55%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/Federal%20Reserve%20building%20in%20Washington%2C%20DC.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Georgia GOP Runoff Shock: Polymarket Slashes Rebecca Shepherd\u2019s 2026 Makerfield Win Odds to 0.55%<\/h2>\n<p>A surprise Republican runoff result in Georgia is rippling through political risk trading, even as the Polymarket contract on whether Rebecca Shepherd will win the 2026 Makerfield by-election is priced heavily against her. On Polymarket, traders currently assign 0.55% to a Shepherd win.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket prices \u201cNo\u201d as the leading outcome at 99.45% in \u201cWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?\u201d.<\/li>\n<li>The contract repriced sharply lower from 80.5% previously to 0.55% currently as traders moved toward the \u201cNo\u201d side.<\/li>\n<li>Polymarket shows $4,698,281 in volume on the market, with a 24-hour change of 79.55 percentage points in the historical summary.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Billionaire Rick Jackson defeated Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in Tuesday\u2019s Republican gubernatorial runoff, after the race was called with Jackson holding 53% of the vote to Jones\u2019 47%. The runoff followed a May primary in which no candidate won a majority, with Jones taking 38% and Jackson 34%. Jones had been endorsed by President Donald Trump, and also received a late endorsement from Republican Gov. Brian Kemp over the weekend. After the result, Trump congratulated Jackson and said he had campaigned on being \u201cTRUMP,\u201d while also offering supportive comments about Jones. The report said Jackson spent more than $100 million on the race and will face Democratic nominee and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in the general election.<\/p>\n<h2>Polymarket Data: $4,698,281 Volume as \u201cNo\u201d Hits 99.45% and Odds Swing 79.55 Points From 80.5%<\/h2>\n<p>On Polymarket, the Makerfield by-election market is lopsided: \u201cNo\u201d trades at 99.45% while \u201cYes\u201d is 0.55%, implying traders see a Shepherd win as a low-probability outcome. Total volume stands at $4,698,281, suggesting heavy participation despite the extreme pricing. The latest odds shown in the dataset previously sat at 80.5% before the move to 0.55%, pointing to a large swing in positioning toward the \u201cNo\u201d contract.<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket has not listed a resolution date in the dataset for this contract; traders will be watching for any market structure updates and further large prints that change the 99.45%\/0.55% split.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond the Makerfield By-Election: Other High-Volume Political and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond this race-specific pricing, activity on Polymarket is clustering in a handful of election contracts where traders are expressing broader political and macro risk views. The highest-volume board remains \u201cDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028,\u201d where Gavin Newsom leads at 24.25% with $1,202,589,649 in volume, while Europe-focused bettors are tracking the \u201cNext French Presidential Election,\u201d with Jordan Bardella at 25.5% on $101,363,254. In Latin America, positioning is more decisive, with \u201cBrazil Presidential Election\u201d showing Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva at 50.5% on $101,352,311, and \u201cColombia Presidential Election\u201d pricing Abelardo de la Espriella at 87.5% with $37,530,060 traded.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>+79.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>+79.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/makerfield-by-election-winner\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Georgia GOP Runoff Shock: Polymarket Slashes Rebecca Shepherd\u2019s 2026 Makerfield Win Odds to 0.55% A surprise Republican runoff result in Georgia is rippling through political risk trading, even as the Polymarket contract on whether Rebecca Shepherd will win the 2026 Makerfield by-election is priced heavily against her. On Polymarket, traders currently assign 0.55% to a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":616086,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[25,25410],"class_list":{"0":"post-616085","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-news","9":"tag-us-election-prediction-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/616085","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=616085"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/616085\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/616086"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=616085"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=616085"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=616085"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}