{"id":615775,"date":"2026-06-17T12:04:20","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T12:04:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/reutersipsos-poll-flags-democracy-fears-as-polymarket-fades-shepherd-to-1-0hnmcd27lr680"},"modified":"2026-06-17T12:04:20","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T12:04:20","slug":"reuters-ipsos-poll-flags-democracy-fears-as-polymarket-fades-shepherd-to-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/17\/reuters-ipsos-poll-flags-democracy-fears-as-polymarket-fades-shepherd-to-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Reuters\/Ipsos poll flags democracy fears as Polymarket fades Shepherd to 1%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/79A892D68406B7BEA76A3A02C1A92F194D28373ECFEBE7625DA51232BF6FECCE.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Rebecca Shepherd 2026 Makerfield By-Election: \u201cNo\u201d Surges to 99.25% on Polymarket<\/h2>\n<p>A Reuters\/Ipsos poll ahead of the United States\u2019 250th anniversary found rising public doubts about the country\u2019s long-term cohesion and the resilience of its democracy. On Polymarket, the contract \u201cWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?\u201d is priced heavily toward \u201cNo,\u201d with the implied probability far above the \u201cYes\u201d side.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket prices \u201cNo\u201d at 99.25% and \u201cYes\u201d at 0.75% for Rebecca Shepherd winning the 2026 Makerfield by-election.<\/li>\n<li>Traders kept the market skewed toward \u201cNo\u201d as broader political polarization and democratic stability concerns dominated headlines.<\/li>\n<li>The contract is active with $4,317,926 in volume; the past 24-hour change is +79.55 percentage points in the dataset.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A Reuters\/Ipsos poll conducted over four days and concluding Monday found that two out of five Americans do not believe the United States will endure as a single country for another 250 years. The findings come as the country approaches its 250th anniversary next month and as President Donald Trump has taken a central role in planned July 4 events that also double as political messaging ahead of November\u2019s midterm elections. The poll showed 38% of respondents said they did not think the U.S. would exist as a single country 250 years from now, including 40% of Democrats and 26% of Republicans. Two-thirds agreed with a statement that American democracy was in danger of failing, with the share up from 57% in a poll conducted in August of last year. The survey also found 77% of respondents said it was likely political violence would increase in the next five years, and a majority said the anniversary celebrations had become too political.<\/p>\n<h2>Polymarket Odds &amp; Liquidity: $4.32M Volume, 99.25% \u201cNo\u201d vs 0.75% \u201cYes\u201d and +79.55-Point 24h Reprice<\/h2>\n<p>On Polymarket, \u201cNo\u201d leads at 99.25% versus 0.75% for \u201cYes\u201d in the Rebecca Shepherd 2026 Makerfield by-election winner market. Total volume stands at $4,317,926, pointing to a heavily one-sided book with traders paying up for the \u201cNo\u201d outcome. The tape shows sharp repricing in the dataset, with a 24-hour move of +79.55 percentage points and the latest odds snapshot showing 80.5 alongside a last-5 average of 75.9.<\/p>\n<p>Monitor whether the market\u2019s dominant \u201cNo\u201d position holds as volume builds further, and watch for any sustained shift away from the current 99.25% pricing on the leading outcome.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond the By-Election: Poll-Driven U.S. Democracy and National Cohesion Contracts Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond the UK by-election tape, Polymarket activity is also clustering around higher-level political risk contracts that test voter sentiment and governing stability across major democracies. In the U.S., \u201cDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028\u201d shows Gavin Newsom leading at 24.55% with $1,200,318,177 in volume, while Europe\u2019s focus includes \u201cNext French Presidential Election\u201d with Jordan Bardella at 25.5% on $101,077,601. In Latin America, traders are leaning toward \u201cBrazil Presidential Election\u201d with Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva at 51.5% on $100,838,186, alongside \u201cColombia Presidential Election\u201d pricing Abelardo de la Espriella at 87.5% with $37,411,531 traded.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>+79.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>+79.5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/makerfield-by-election-winner\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rebecca Shepherd 2026 Makerfield By-Election: \u201cNo\u201d Surges to 99.25% on Polymarket A Reuters\/Ipsos poll ahead of the United States\u2019 250th anniversary found rising public doubts about the country\u2019s long-term cohesion and the resilience of its democracy. On Polymarket, the contract \u201cWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?\u201d is priced heavily toward \u201cNo,\u201d with the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":615776,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[25,25410],"class_list":{"0":"post-615775","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-news","9":"tag-us-election-prediction-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/615775","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=615775"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/615775\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/615776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=615775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=615775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=615775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}