{"id":615387,"date":"2026-06-16T20:03:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T20:03:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/alaska-blocks-dan-sullivan-namesake-as-polymarket-keeps-bardella-at-255-0hnmbs9avkcg0"},"modified":"2026-06-16T20:03:31","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T20:03:31","slug":"alaska-blocks-dan-sullivan-namesake-as-polymarket-keeps-bardella-at-25-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/16\/alaska-blocks-dan-sullivan-namesake-as-polymarket-keeps-bardella-at-25-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Alaska blocks Dan Sullivan namesake as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/Business%20candle%20stick%20graph%20chart%20of%20stock%20market%20investment%20trading%20design-min.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>Alaska Ballot Ruling Doesn\u2019t Budge Polymarket: Jordan Bardella Holds 25.5% to Win France\u2019s Next Presidential Election<\/h2>\n<p>An Alaska elections official ruled a U.S. Senate challenger sharing the same name and party affiliation as incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan is ineligible for the state\u2019s August primary ballot. On Polymarket\u2019s \u201cNext French Presidential Election\u201d market, pricing was flat, with Jordan Bardella leading at 25.5%.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket implies Jordan Bardella is the top 2027 French presidential winner pick at 25.5% (No 74.5%).<\/li>\n<li>Despite the Alaska ballot ruling in a U.S. Senate race, the French election contract showed no net move, holding at 25.5% for the leading outcome.<\/li>\n<li>The market is set to resolve by 2027-04-30, and the latest 24-hour and 7-day moves show a +2.0 percentage-point change.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A top Alaska elections official ruled on Monday that a U.S. Senate candidate who shares the same name and party affiliation as Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan is ineligible to appear on the state\u2019s August primary ballot. Alaska Division of Elections Director Carol Beecher said in a letter that the challenger\u2019s filing was not made in good faith, arguing it was intended to confuse or mislead voters and compromise the ballot\u2019s fairness or neutrality. The challenger can appeal the decision, Beecher said, with ballots due to be printed on June 28. The dispute followed the challenger\u2019s filing shortly before the June 1 deadline and drew allegations from Republicans that he was a \u201csham\u201d candidate aiming to affect Democratic former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola\u2019s prospects, claims that both the challenger and Peltola\u2019s campaign have denied. Alaska\u2019s lieutenant governor previously announced an investigation citing what she called credible allegations that the candidacy was coordinated to confuse voters.<\/p>\n<h2>Next French Presidential Election Market Sees $100.7M Volume as Bardella Leads at 25.5% (Philippe 19.5%, M\u00e9lenchon 12.5%<\/h2>\n<p>On Polymarket, the \u201cNext French Presidential Election\u201d contract was unchanged, with the leading outcome Jordan Bardella priced at 25.5% Yes versus 74.5% No on roughly $100.7 million in volume. The next tier showed \u00c9douard Philippe at 19.5% Yes \/ 80.5% No, while Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon traded at 12.5% Yes \/ 87.5% No. Further down the board, Marine Le Pen sat at 7.5% Yes \/ 92.5% No, with long shots like \u00c9ric Zemmour at 0.75% Yes \/ 99.25% No, indicating traders are spreading probability across multiple candidates rather than converging on a single dominant favorite.<\/p>\n<p>The market\u2019s next major repricing catalysts are expected to be formal declarations, party primary dynamics, and polling shifts as the 2027-04-30 resolution date approaches.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond France 2027: Other High-Interest Political Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond the France 2027 board, Polymarket traders are also allocating risk across a slate of high-volume political contracts that span multiple regions and election cycles. In the $1.20 billion \u201cDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028\u201d market, Gavin Newsom leads at 24.45%, while Brazil\u2019s presidential contest prices Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva at 51.5% on about $100.6 million in volume. Elsewhere, the \u201cMakerfield by-election Winner\u201d contract has Andy Burnham at 80.5% (about $6.3 million traded), and Peru\u2019s razor-thin second-round margin market favors \u201cFujimori 0.2\u20130.3%\u201d at 93.45% on roughly $2.25 million.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>+2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>+2.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/next-french-presidential-election\">Next French Presidential Election<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Apr 30, 2027 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$100,676,044<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Jordan Bardella<\/td>\n<td>25.5%<\/td>\n<td>74.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u00c9douard Philippe<\/td>\n<td>19.5%<\/td>\n<td>80.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon<\/td>\n<td>12.5%<\/td>\n<td>87.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Marine Le Pen<\/td>\n<td>7.5%<\/td>\n<td>92.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+32 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/next-french-presidential-election\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alaska Ballot Ruling Doesn\u2019t Budge Polymarket: Jordan Bardella Holds 25.5% to Win France\u2019s Next Presidential Election An Alaska elections official ruled a U.S. Senate challenger sharing the same name and party affiliation as incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan is ineligible for the state\u2019s August primary ballot. On Polymarket\u2019s \u201cNext French Presidential Election\u201d market, pricing was flat, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":615388,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[25,25410],"class_list":{"0":"post-615387","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-news","9":"tag-us-election-prediction-markets"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/615387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=615387"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/615387\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/615388"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=615387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=615387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=615387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}