{"id":615211,"date":"2026-06-16T12:04:39","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T12:04:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/Blockchain.News\/news\/us-iran-truce-lifts-risk-mood-as-polymarket-pegs-69-odds-of-zero-fed-cuts-0hnmbjto472k0"},"modified":"2026-06-16T12:04:39","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T12:04:39","slug":"us-iran-truce-lifts-risk-mood-as-polymarket-pegs-69-odds-of-zero-fed-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/06\/16\/us-iran-truce-lifts-risk-mood-as-polymarket-pegs-69-odds-of-zero-fed-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"US-Iran truce lifts risk mood as Polymarket pegs 69% odds of zero Fed cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.blockchain.news\/thumbnails\/Complex%20Stock%20Market%20Candlestick%20Chart.%20Business%20economy%20and%20financial%20background.-min.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\"><\/div>\n<h2>US\u2013Iran Interim Peace Deal and Kevin Warsh\u2019s First Fed Decision Keep Polymarket\u2019s 2026 \u201cNo Rate Cuts\u201d Bet in the Lead<\/h2>\n<p>An interim peace deal between the U.S. and Iran and a closely watched Federal Reserve policy decision are setting the tone for risk markets this week, keeping attention on the outlook for monetary easing. On Polymarket\u2019s \u201cHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?\u201d ladder, the top contract continues to price in a strong chance of no cuts.<\/p>\n<h3>Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>Polymarket prices a 68.75% chance that the Fed makes 0 rate cuts in 2026 (0 bps), versus 31.25% for the opposite side.<\/li>\n<li>Traders are watching Kevin Warsh\u2019s first FOMC rate decision this week, with the forecast calling for no change in the policy range.<\/li>\n<li>The contract resolves on 2026-12-31, while the latest snapshot shows $35.54 million in traded volume and a 2.35 percentage-point 7-day move in the leading outcome odds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Crypto markets opened the week focused on an interim peace deal between the U.S. and Iran announced on Sunday, a development that traders hope could ease months of geopolitical stress on risk assets. Bitcoin rose to nearly $66,000 on Monday, about 3.5% above Friday\u2019s level, and crypto-linked equities such as Strategy (MSTR) and Galaxy (GLXY) gained in pre-market trading. The report flagged lingering caution after an April ceasefire collapsed and another truce was broken last month following U.S. strikes, episodes that coincided with crypto weakness. Attention also turns to Wednesday\u2019s interest-rate decision, described as Kevin Warsh\u2019s first as Federal Reserve chair, with forecasts calling for no change in the current 3.50%\u20133.75% range. A new dot plot and a shortened week due to the Juneteenth federal holiday were cited as factors that could reduce liquidity, leaving upcoming data and Fed guidance as key inputs for risk sentiment.<\/p>\n<h2>Polymarket Fed Cuts Ladder: \u201c0 Cuts\u201d at 68.75% With $35.54M Volume and a 2.35-Point Weekly Odds Move<\/h2>\n<p>Polymarket\u2019s ladder is heavily skewed toward minimal easing in 2026, led by \u201c0 (0 bps)\u201d at 68.75% Yes versus 31.25% No, on $35.54 million in cumulative volume. The next rung, \u201c1 (25 bps),\u201d sits at 15.5% Yes \/ 84.5% No, showing traders assign much lower odds to even a single cut. Farther out, \u201c2 (50 bps)\u201d is priced at 5.65% Yes \/ 94.35% No and \u201c3 (75 bps)\u201d at 1.85% Yes \/ 98.15% No, with deep tail strikes such as \u201c4 (100 bps)\u201d at 0.55% Yes \/ 99.45% No. The spread across rungs implies positioning concentrated in the no-cuts base case, with sharply diminishing conviction as the implied number of cuts rises into 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Traders will watch how pricing shifts across the ladder as liquidity changes around the midweek Fed decision and as the market recalibrates the gap between the 0-cut base case and the 1-cut alternative ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution.<\/p>\n<h2>Beyond the Fed: Other High-Interest Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching<\/h2>\n<p>Beyond the 2026 cuts ladder, traders are also spreading risk across shorter-dated catalysts and broader macro shocks on Polymarket. In the near term, 93.5% \u201cNo change\u201d leads the \u201cFed Decision in July?\u201d contract, which has drawn $10,137,437 in volume as participants position for the next policy waypoint. Other actively watched markets on the platform span geopolitical flashpoints and growth-inflation crosscurrents that can reprice rates expectations and crypto sentiment in a hurry.<\/p>\n<h2>Odds Trend<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Window<\/th>\n<th>Change (pp)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>24h<\/td>\n<td>+2.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>7d<\/td>\n<td>+2.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>By the Numbers<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Platform:<\/strong> Polymarket<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market:<\/strong> <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026\">How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><strong>Contract type:<\/strong> Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes\/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Resolution window:<\/strong> Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Status:<\/strong> Active (open for trading)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Volume:<\/strong> ~$35,541,488<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Top strike rungs<\/strong><\/p>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Strike<\/th>\n<th>Yes<\/th>\n<th>No<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>0 (0 bps)<\/td>\n<td>68.8%<\/td>\n<td>31.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>1 (25 bps)<\/td>\n<td>15.5%<\/td>\n<td>84.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>2 (50 bps)<\/td>\n<td>5.7%<\/td>\n<td>94.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3 (75 bps)<\/td>\n<td>1.9%<\/td>\n<td>98.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><em>+9 more strikes not shown<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Related Markets<\/h2>\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<p><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026\">View market on platform<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blockchain.news\/\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US\u2013Iran Interim Peace Deal and Kevin Warsh\u2019s First Fed Decision Keep Polymarket\u2019s 2026 \u201cNo Rate Cuts\u201d Bet in the Lead An interim peace deal between the U.S. and Iran and a closely watched Federal Reserve policy decision are setting the tone for risk markets this week, keeping attention on the outlook for monetary easing. On [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":615212,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[25445,25],"class_list":{"0":"post-615211","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blockchain","8":"tag-macrofed-prediction-markets","9":"tag-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/615211","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=615211"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/615211\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/615212"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=615211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=615211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=615211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}