{"id":590214,"date":"2026-04-27T08:53:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-27T08:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/04\/27\/prediction-markets-reflect-wisdom-of-an-informed-minority-not-crowd-study\/"},"modified":"2026-04-27T08:53:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T08:53:00","slug":"prediction-markets-reflect-wisdom-of-an-informed-minority-not-crowd-study","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/2026\/04\/27\/prediction-markets-reflect-wisdom-of-an-informed-minority-not-crowd-study\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction markets reflect &#8216;wisdom of an informed minority,\u2019 not crowd: Study"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.cointelegraph.com\/images\/840_aHR0cHM6Ly9zMy5jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjYtMDQvMDE5ZGNjZmYtNmU4MS03ZDE1LTg5YzQtZGYwNTM4ZjQyYWUwLmpwZw==.jpg\" alt=\"Prediction markets reflect 'wisdom of an informed minority,\u2019 not crowd: Study\" class=\"type:primaryImage\" \/><\/p>\n<p>About 3.5% of informed traders, including market makers and skilled takers, capture over 30% of profits on prediction platforms, while about 67% of users absorb the entirety of losses.<\/p>\n<p>Prediction market platforms\u2019 ability to accurately predict events is driven by a small set of highly informed traders rather than crowd-sourced wisdom, according to researchers from London Business School and Yale University.<\/p>\n<p>About 3.5% of these accounts \u201cgenerate the bulk of price discovery\u201d on prediction markets like Polymarket, <a title=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6617059\" href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6617059\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">according<\/a> to a paper by Roberto Gomez-Cram, Yunhan Guo, Theis Ingerslev Jensen and Howard Kung, which was revised April 25.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe remaining majority does not produce accuracy; rather, it funds it,\u201d the authors said.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/prediction-markets-reflect-wisdom-of-an-informed-minority-not-crowd-study\">Read more<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>About 3.5% of informed traders, including market makers and skilled takers, capture over 30% of profits on prediction platforms, while about 67% of users absorb the entirety of losses. Prediction market platforms\u2019 ability to accurately predict events is driven by a small set of highly informed traders rather than crowd-sourced wisdom, according to researchers from [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-590214","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-blockchain"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=590214"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/590214\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=590214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=590214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/e-bitco.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=590214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}